Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem

Answer to Question

 

Question: I would like to clarify the following points in  light of a political discussion I have recently attended:

 

With regards to the issue of Iraq, the discussion centred around the Iraqi parliament and its accusations against  al-Maliki and 30 other figures for surrendering Nainawa , the reforms of al -Abadi, the sit-ins related to public services and the military battles against the ISIS organisation in al-Anbar as well as the preparations to recapture Mosul.  The prevalent opinion was that  al-Maliki’s tenure should take the blame for the status quo ante and that steps should be taken to shore up central government, to concur with the process of federalisation once the counsel of al-Sistani against fragmentation has been taken into account. Hence, the influence of al-Baghdadi's state is expected to dwindle to allow for the "Sunni" province to crop up, and which the Jordanian entity would endeavour to crystallise. Were the conclusions sound?  

 

Answer:

 

The issue of Haydar al-Abadi's reforms in Iraq, what was mentioned is a sound opinion. It seems that the current events in Iraq, in terms of demonstrations and sit-ins, are part of the preparations aimed at paving the way for a serious dialogue between the government of al-Abadi and the "Sunni" representatives in order to establish the provinces system in the "Sunni" and "Shia" areas which is a prelude to federalisation. However, this has to be preceded by a cosmetic procedure to turn the page of al-Nouri and hold him responsible for the events of Mosul and to occasion the illusion that corruption is being fought by generating a symbolic change in the cabinet of al-Abadi in order to lend him some credibility in any process of future negotiations. The strongest evidence for this analysis is reflected in the statements of the Pentagon on the current events in Iraq. Spokesperson Elissa Smith expressed the Pentagon's approval of the steps undertaken by Iraqi Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi to reform the government and tackle corruption.  She said  the proposals had been met with a widespread political and popular support. She added that although this process was an internal Iraqi matter, the US praised the initiative of Haydar Abadi to improve government services and transparency, thus leading to consolidating the unity of Iraq and helping to fight the ISIS organisation.  This statement, together with the call on the "Shia" authority to combat corruption and reform the judiciary, in addition to the statements of Muqtada al-Sadr that support the movements of protests, indicates that the demonstrations in the southern cities are but artificially instigated manoeuvres aimed at strengthening the hand of Haydar al-Abadi within his own party, al-Da'awah party, to which former Prime Minister al-Maliki belongs, and among the "Shia" circles as well as Iraqi public opinion.  

 

By strengthening the position of al-Abadi, America can turn him into a bridgehead to implement the initiative of the provinces and federalisation as stipulated by several US officials. Now that al-Abadi has succeeded in implementing a bundle of reforms in the cabinet and in parliament as well as enabling parliament to refer a report to the Judiciary  accusing Nouri al-Maliki and tens of other officials of being responsible for the fall of Mosul into the hands of the ISIS organisation, it is expected that he will achieve some victories over the ISIS organisation. This will enable him to provide a geographic space for the Iraqi "Sunnis" over which they will establish the province America has promised them with the help of Saudi and Qatar, through pledging to bankroll the building of the infrastructure and generate job opportunities, in addition to the assistance from the Jordanian entity in its establishment.

 

18 Thil Qi'dah 1436h

2 September 2015

 

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