Events in Turkey, Southern Sudan & Yemen
Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem
Answers to Questions
First: Events in Turkey
It seems America and some Western powers were behind the corruption scandal that led to the resignation of three ministers and a major cabinet reshuffle in Erdogan’s government in order to reduce the Justice and Development party’s (AKP) majority in the March 2014 elections. Erdogan was correct when he blamed "foreign-backed elements of a dirty plot against Turkey"; but the questions is: Why?The AKP won three consecutive elections and its popularity has been on the rise; thus America wants to curtail it lest the Islamic trend should mushroom further at the expense of the secular trend that was dealt a series of heavy blows after the army had suffered a drop in its influence, the putschists had been put on trial and the Ergenekon network, known as the deep state, had been dismantled. The revamping of the secular movement in Turkey and enhancing its standing with the aim of generating some equilibrium between the secular and Islamic movements is a clear trend pursued by America, and it is very much in line with the participatory democracy she has been strappingly propagating.
Erdogan has accused the US Ambassador to Ankara of "provocative actions" which confirms the American role in spilling the beans on the corruption cases within the cabinet and the establishment.
The Fethullah Gülen group, which had been in alliance with the AKP for the past ten years with the aim of confronting the eradicationalist secularists in the armed forces, the media and the establishment, has noticeably decided to end this alliance. The leader of the Gülen group resides in Pennsylvania and there have been strong rumours about his dubious relationship with America; he has most probably been instructed by America to end his alliance with the AKP.
The most prominent activities of the Gülen group is establishing religious schools and keeping away from "political Islam". The group has in the past been in alliance with former Prime Ministers Turgut Özal and Mustafa Bülent Ecevit. Hence, the Gülen group is expected to back the Republican People's Party (CHP) or other opposition parties in the next elections which will have a knock-on effect on the AKP's share of the votes. It seems also that the election campaign against Erdogan has already started; his opponents have taken to the streets and called for the resignation of his government, stressing that a cabinet reshuffle and the resignation of some ministers is not enough.
Second: The Events of Southern Sudan
It seems that the struggle between President Salva Kiir and his former vice-president, Riek Mashar, is neither related to any foreign intervention aimed at backing one party against the other, nor a coup d'état attempt, despite the attempts of Salva Kiir to portray the event as such in order to amass foreign support in his favour. The current events are but a domestic struggle for power. Salva Kiir dismissed Riek Mashar from his post last July after he had learned that the latter was preparing to run for president in two years' time. Hence, he wanted to remove him from the race and from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in order to reduce his chances of acceding to power.
The struggle between Salva Kiir and Riek Mashar is by and large based on the tribal dimension. The Dinka tribe led by the widow of John Garang is backing Salva Kiir and the Nuer tribe is backing Riek Mashar who, together with Pagan Amum, accuse Salva Kiir of dictatorship, unilateralism and deviating from the vision of the SPLA.
America hastened to contain the struggle by setting the IGAD Ministerial Mission in motion to heal the rift between the two parties and threatened to suspend aid to Southern Sudan should they fail to reach a settlement. Hence, the struggle is expected to be settled despite the seizure of some cities by the forces of Riek Mashar, especially in the oil-rich Unity State. However, Riek Mashar is merely raising the stakes in his negotiations with Salva Kiir and the issue is merely a struggle for power, especially with the presidential elections drawing near.
Third: The Events of Yemen
The events of Dammaj and the storming of the defence ministry building shed light on the problems al-Qaeda is causing to Yemen in order to divert attention from efforts undertaken to start implementing the national dialogue plan, which has concluded that a federal system and dividing the country into provinces would be one of the options aimed at settling the main crises blighting the country, especially South Yemen.
America wants to cram everyone into the political process and to pressurise them into accepting the outcomes of the national dialogue.
In the events of Dammaj, the Houthis attacked the Salafist Jihadists' positions because al-Qaeda allegedly wanted to change the demographic composition and shelter Jihadists from outside Yemen under the guise of education and teaching. It is clear that the Houthis were not acting on their own accord; they were instructed by Iran.
As for the storming of the ministry of defence, its focus was the military hospital which was clearly intended to highlight the horrors of the attack and claim that al-Qaeda did not even respect the sanctity of the sick.
Since many members of the Salafist Jihadist movement in Yemen were linked to the regime of Abdullah Saleh, who still enjoys a significant influence inside the country, it transpires that the attack was intended to incite public opinion against them and prove that their actions hamper the country's progress towards political stability according to the plan of the National Dialogue Conference, which the UN Secretary General's personal envoy to Yemen Bin Omar has been propagating in his document.
What is occurring in Yemen is a meticulous execution of the Greater Middle East Initiative that is designed to weaken the Muslims further by fragmenting their lands and sowing the seeds of hatred among them.
29 Safar 1435h
1 January 2014