Yemeni Stakeholders Political & Military Actions at Behest of Foreign Powers: Designed to Steer towards Negotiations

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم 
Political Observation
Yemeni Stakeholders Political & Military Actions at Behest of Foreign Powers: Designed to Steer towards Negotiations 
 
Following the interview of United States Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking with “The National” newspaper in Manama on 21 November 2021, during which he said that the US was pushing for “regional solutions for a regional problem,” that removing the designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation was a “positive gesture” to which “they have not responded in a way that I would have liked to see”, and that America was “still very concerned, and remain very concerned, about their behaviour”, Saudi forces, seconded by Yemeni government forces, launched a flurry of air and ground strikes against the Houthis on several fronts and over several weeks of December and January. This was   part of a strategic military pressure aimed at reflecting the American vision towards the Houthis, considering they are an “extremist and intransigent” side, and at pinning them in their positions and preventing them from expanding, thus paving the way for settling the Iranian nuclear file and its implications in the region. However,  the approach pursued by the Houthis’, especially after their victories in Shabwa and Marib where the Yemeni alliance forces collapsed, soon changed as the forces affiliated to the Emirates intervened in the south of Yemen, represented by the Giants Brigades led by the nephew of former Yemeni president, following a signal from the US Envoy sent through an interview on 16 December 2022 in which he said, “So, it's a matter of getting enough leverage and pressure on the warring parties to realize that their aims will be better achieved through negotiation rather than continuing to fight.” This means exerting pressure on the Houthis who continue their attempts to expand, and forcing them to stop despite Iran who has been harnessing them as a bargaining chip in her struggle with Saudi. It also means that America will assign a new functional role to the Houthis in the forthcoming phase, which will follow the process of regulating the Iranian behaviour according to the requirements of the regional solution. The new functional role of the Houthis includes their role in dividing Yemen and  in the equation of military, political, and economic equilibrium after the division. 
 
The return of the interventions by the forces loyal to the Emirates, which had effectively withdrawn from any military operations against the Houthis for several years, and their focusing on separating the south by supporting the separatist movements and its military forces, has resulted in recapturing the strategic and oil-rich governorate of Shabwa and recovering all the areas which the Yemeni army had lost in Marib through the “Cyclone of the South” operation, with the aim of achieving the desired equilibrium. 
 
It is clear that the Houthis’ missile and drone attacks which terrified the Emirates throughout the month of January, following a four-year lull, also constitute  a message to Abu Dhabi stipulating the need to refrain from backing the government forces and destabilising the military equilibrium on the ground, which could give the government and Saudi side hope in achieving an unexpected victory over the Houthis. 
 
On the other hand, and in order to exert further pressure on the Houthis with the aim of compelling them to sit at the negotiating table, the UN Secretary General slammed the escalation by describing the military operations traded by the warring factions in January as a “vicious circle” which could only be broken by a ceasefire in Yemen and by opening the seaports and airports, something to which Saudi responded positively through her deputy defence minister Khaled bin Salman who emphasised, following his meeting with the UN and US envoys, that his country’s policy was to “support the efforts aimed at reaching a political solution in Yemen”.  
 
Moreover, the operations targeting the Emirates, namely the missile strikes and what they entail in terms of denoting “trespassing and sidestepping Saudi territories to strike deep inside the Emirates”, especially as the president of the usurping entity was visiting the Emirates, or the hijacking of the oil tanker in the Red Sea, are also deemed a clear instruction to the Emirate to regulate its relationship with the Zionist entity  so as not to provide the new “Israeli” government with total reassurance and the impetus to see political gains in isolation of the American channels, especially that the Emirates’ rulers made their continuance in power dependent on their animosity towards Islam and the relationship with “Israel” following the tsunami of the “Arab Spring”, which could give the new "Israel" government the chance to bypass the steps of the regional solution and steer "Israeli" public opinion towards further intransigence in respect of making “concessions” to the Palestinians. The "Israeli" support for the Emirates and the Gulf States could encourage the rulers to confine their continuance in power linked to serving the Zionist entity, which to them would constitute a safe haven from the American hegemony and pressure which undermines their regimes in some files, such as the US refusal to conclude a contract for the purchase of modern jetfighters with the Emirates, and her decision to leak the news of the Financial Action Task Force, which has decided to place the Emirates on the list of the states who did not comply with the endeavours to combat money-laundering, financing terrorism, and implementing the commercial and financial measures and regulations, knowing that the aim of this “Task Force” is to give major powers the ability to monitor and control all the domestic economic and financial transactions, the “transparency of the fiscal activities”, and the flow of funds in and out of the country, and such as America’s reluctance to intercept the Houthis’ attacks on the Emirates despite her ability to do so. This has prompted the Emirati rulers to grovel to Washington to plead for reclassifying the Houthi movement, from which they benefited in deepening the division and undermining the Yemeni revolution and the Reform Movement, as a “terrorist organisation”, and to request further US military presence and backing. However, Washington informed Abu Dhabi during a meeting between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and the Saudi and Emirati ambassadors that America supported the efforts led by the UN to end the war in Yemen through a political process. Hence, as America determined the new role of the Emirates, namely re-establishing the military equilibrium on the ground and refraining from transgressing it, the Emirates were compelled  to instruct the Giants Brigades to return to their barracks and leave the battlefield in Marib to the governmental forces to fulfil their treacherous role, which they have been practising since the beginning of the war. This scenario was corroborated by an official of the Giants Brigades in a statement to France Press Agency (AFP) in which said that the Brigades “have not withdrawn from the battlefronts but started to take some defensive measures to confront any potential military attack by the Houthis”, in other words, they were present to prevent the Houthis from transgressing the boundaries of the areas drawn to them. This in turn confirms that America wants to keep the scarecrow of Iran and her surrogates within the framework of the functional role assigned to them once the nuclear file has been sealed off and progress in the “peace” process and the regional solution has been made.  
 
As for the Iranian role, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian hinted at the end of the meeting of Joint Committee for Strategic Consultations on 24 December 2021 in the presence of Omani minister of diplomatic affairs Sheikh Khalifa al-Harthy, that his country was “committed to dialogue and to adopting the political solutions to iron out bilateral and regional problems”; he also confirmed “Tehran’s readiness to negotiate with the countries of the region to improve bilateral relations”. This is exactly what the negotiating sides in Vienna have been demanding. American insists that the Houthis should not “carry out any attack using drones, or conventional or winged missiles without the prior permission or instruction from Iran.” Iranian foreign ministry official spokesperson replied by saying that “Iran is prepared to support the diplomatic solutions, which are deemed the only solution for the Yemeni crisis.” He also confirmed that the Yemeni issue was “linked to the regional solutions” and that “the region will benefit from the return of the relations between Teheran and Riyadh to normal.” 
 
The biggest calamity to befall this Ummah after the collapse of her State is her engrossment in wars that were never hers, and in adopting solutions that had no link to either her religion or her history, as well as her silence over rulers who have been protecting the interests of her enemies and preventing her liberation and revival; rulers who have even been depleting her forces in civil wars on nationalist and sectarian grounds, which led to squandering her riches and killing the best of her youth. In the face of this river of Muslim blood being shed in vain and leading only to deepening the division between the Ummah’s children, the Ummah has no other choice by to respond to the call of her Lord, resume her Islamic way of life, and rally her ranks to repel the assault of her enemies, an convey her message, which has become the last stronghold for salvaging the world from the tyranny of the criminal capitalism and from atheism.  
 
18 Shaaban 1443h
21 March 2022  
 
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