Political Observation - Al-Sisi, Algeria & Threats to Intervene in Libya
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Political Observation - Al-Sisi, Algeria & Threats to Intervene in Libya
The criminal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi told Egyptian air force combat units, on 20 June 2020 when he toured the western military region, to “be prepared to execute any mission within our borders or if necessary, beyond our borders.” This came in the aftermath of his failure to rescue the forces of Khalifah Haftar and the regression in international support and momentum to subjugate Tripoli to the dominion of Haftar, and after the Government of National Accord (GNA) forces had started their mobilisation to storm the city of Sirte with the help of Turkey.
All this is unfolding amid the Algerian president’s endeavour to change the dogma of the Algerian armed forces and allow them to participate in missions abroad within the framework of “keeping the peace” and defending Algerian national security. Meanwhile, Fathi al-Mrimi, the media advisor of the President of the Libyan House of Representatives Aquila Saleh, commented on al-Sisi’s statements on Libya by saying on the same day: “Parliament supports the statement of Egyptian president Abdul Fattah al-Sisi… We welcome al-Sisi….confirmation that Sirte and the oilfields are a red line, and that Egypt would not hesitate in intervening militarily if the mercenaries and terrorist groups went beyond that region... Any Egyptian intervention will be by invitation of the Libyan masses who took to the streets in several cities in support of al-Sisi’s statements… Any intervention will be under the auspices of the Libyan army and with popular approval.”
Meanwhile, the presidential council of the GNA in Libya issue a communiqué in response to the statement of Egyptian president Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. To quote from the communiqué: “The Libyan state stresses that meddling in its domestic affairs, impinging on the sovereignty of the state through media statements by certain countries, as was the case with the Egyptian president, and backing the putschists, militias and mercenaries, is unacceptable and denounceable, and considered a belligerent act, a flagrant interference and a declaration of war... We remind everyone that the GNA is the sole legitimate representative of the Libyan state and that it reserves the exclusive right to determine the manner and the type of its agreements and alliances.”
This dynamism seems to reflect an Egyptian escalation and an Algerian preparation to intervene in Libya against the Turkish intervention, and it has come amid a rift between Russia and Turkey over the lines at which the GNA forces should stop their advance eastwards, namely the coastal city of Sirte in the north and al-Jufra in the south, and over the continuance of Haftar whose presence in the scene has started to be eroded in favour of the President of the Libyan House of Representatives, Aquila Saleh.
It is clear the GNA is colluding in confining the struggle over the city of Sirte to areas outside the so-called oil crescent and al-Jufra airbase where the Wagner mercenaries are based. These forces are acting as a deterrent to any attempt to advance eastwards and towards the oil fields in order to keep the card of economic pressure in the hands of the Haftar clique and parliament and to compel the Tripoli and Misrata factions to accept the outcomes of the Berlin Conference under persistent austerity and deteriorating living standards of the masses. This is what America is aiming to achieve and this is what all foreign stakeholders have acquiesced to, and what Turkey and America are in agreement over; this was clearly reflected in the Turkish and GNA agreement stipulating that conditions should return to what they were before the al-Sukheirat Agreement of 2015, namely having the city of Sirte and Jufra under the GNA’s authority, before negotiations could be initiated.
Al-Sisi’s threats to intervene militarily in Libya and to exchange roles with Algeria, which is prepared to mediate and intervene, is not a threat directed at the GNA or Turkey as much as a message to those who are still banking on defeating the despotic regimes in the region, and as much a muscle-flexing exercise and a message to the “revolutionary” forces in Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria, in addition to cover the failure of al-Sisi in the Libyan file, reassure the clique of Haftar and their militias lest they should be dismantled in the wake of the terror inflicted on them due to their successive defeats at the hands of the Turkish-backed GNA forces, and to deter the Tripoli and Misrata faction against exceeding the boundaries of Sirte and Jufra, which al-Sisi has declared as a red line.
Al-Sisi realised that the Turkish intervention in Libya is approved by America, and that America wants to halt the failed military operations of Haftar and to kick-start the political process according to the Berlin Conference recommendations, as per the recent statement of the US ambassador to Libya. Hence, America aims to achieve a dual containment involving the revolutions forces in Tripoli and Misrata, and Turkey who has been endeavouring to achieve a host of economic and political interests in Libya and in the East Mediterranean. This narrative was summed up by the comment of Amr Moussa, America’s agent and expert in Middle Eastern affairs, in which he said: “Turkey would not have been able to undertake such actions in Libya, to cross the airspace of the Mediterranean Sea and to have a presence in there with military forces and militias, had it not been for the approval of major powers.” He added: “Major powers are present in Libya such as the US, Russia and European states, and it is not necessary for their interests to be concordant. However, they all agree on maintaining the status quo until issues are ironed out.” For America, ironing out the outstanding issues involves drawing the outlines, determining the role of the players and the limits of their intervention, and confining the conducting of the struggle to herself, now that she has expelled France and frozen Russia within the square of maintaining a military equilibrium between the warring forces with the help of Turkey, in addition to initiating the Egyptian and Algerian role, which is less costly in drawing the demarcation line on the ground in a manner that achieves America’s aims, especially containing Turkey through her role in Libya, which America may decide to turn against and make Libya the scene where Erdoğan is disciplined and his energies are depleted whenever necessary. As for the Arab states’ campaign of accusing and demonising Turkey, it is conducted within the framework of mobilising and inciting the liberal and secularist forces, as well as the deep state against Turkey who represents the “Islamic model” in governance, and muzzling the “Islamic” and popular forces and preventing them from exploiting the outcomes of the Turkish intervention to bolster their dynamism.
In this context, we are wondering about the value of the national identity, which we categorically reject, and the alleged “national security” with which the rulers have justified their crimes and bashed our ears with, while they set about violating it, tearing to shreds their derisory identity, acting in a ghoulish manner against their own folks, selling their countries and turning themselves into watchdogs for the interests of the colonialists, amid the oblivion of the Muslims to the tinkering of the Kuffar and their agents with the faculties of this Ummah and to turning their armies into a tool that humiliates and kills her on behalf of the colonialists.
“How (can there be such a covenant with them) that when you are overpowered by them, they regard not the ties, either of kinship or of covenant with you? With (good words from) their mouths they please you, but their hearts are averse to you, and most of them are Fasiqun (rebellious, disobedient to Allah). [al-Taubah-8]
1 Thil Qi’dah 1441
22 June 2020