Political Observation - Facts and Aims of the War on East Ghouta
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Political Observation - Facts and Aims of the War on East Ghouta
The wicked military campaign on East Ghouta led by Russia has evoked a host of averse international reaction and a feigned diplomatic dynamism headed by America, Britain, France and Germany calling for an end to the onslaught. This dynamism culminated into United Nations Security Council resolution 2401 stipulating the cessation of all military operations for one month and allowing humanitarian aid to enter East Ghouta. However, the Russians and the Syrian regime failed to adhere to the truce.
The diplomatic dynamism conducted by Europe and America in the annals of the UN is but an empty gesture aimed at seeking vindication and pulling the wool over the eyes of international public opinion to lure the world into believing they are doing their best to stop the Russian war on East Ghouta and save the civilians.
In fact, the events of Ghouta are part and parcel of the “war on terror” led by the United States with the collaboration of Russia and the active European states, which in reality aims at paving the way for the fragmentation of Syria.
The indications proving that America and Europe have been conspiring with Russia in the war on East Ghouta is reflected in what Italian news agency Aki reported on 9 March 2018; quoting a military source of Syrian opposition groups in the south, the agency reported that the US had warned - through Jordan – “against the redeployment of fighters from southern Syria to the south of the capital Damascus, or the participation of any group in the battles of Ghouta.” The source indicated to Aki that the opposition groups stipulated America’s intervention to stop the shelling of civilians and prevent the displacement of Ghouta’s residents from their towns towards the south or any other place in Syria in exchange for their commitment not to participate in the battles.
The American prevention of the southern opposition groups from helping the people of East Ghouta by opening a military front against the Assad regime proves that the so-called de-escalation zones, be it in Ghouta or even in Idlib are but military tactics that had been generated to isolate the areas of the opposition and then get rid of them one after the other according to a meticulous plan concocted exclusively by Russia and America, despite all the apparent differences between them on various files inside and outside Syria.
What the Assad regime is carrying out in East Ghouta today proves this since it had been successful with the same operations in rural Syria and parts of Deir ez-Zor and Idlib; if it succeeded, thanks to the overt Russian help and covert American help in achieving significant military gains in East Ghouta, it would most likely move to complete its dominance over other key areas in eastern al-Qalamoun and the northern Homs countryside.
What also proves that the blockade, deprivation of food and displacement of civilians in East Ghouta is an international conspiracy engineered by America with a Russian collaboration is the change in the pretext to attack Ghouta; Russia and the Assad regime alleged that their onslaught on East Ghouta was designed to flush out “terrorist” elements affiliated to the al-Sham Liberation Organisation but when al-Ghouta’s groups expressed repeatedly their readiness to redeploy those elements, Russia started to drag her feet in the negotiations on that issue.
The question is: what are the military and political aims of this bloody and unjust onslaught on East Ghouta?
We can in fact observe several aims of which we list the following:
1 – Securing the capital Damascus
The Russian campaign on East Ghouta and the attempt to dominate it are at the heart of the operation designed to secure the capital’s belt which the Assad regime launched in 2013 and which includes pushing the opposition far away from Damascus international airport that has been on several occasions targeted by the opposition’s artillery, and securing the military bases and security branches. If the regime succeeds in securing Damascus, it will then achieve Damascus’ food security by seizing control of Ghouta and it will secure what is known as “viable Syria”, namely the Alawite state.
2 – Breaking the back of the opposition
It seems that one of the aims of the military campaign on East Ghouta is breaking the back of the opposition and uproot it from that region under the guise of expelling the operatives of al-Sham Liberation Organisation, formerly known as al-Nusrah Front. Since the al-Rahman Legion and Jaysh al-Islam are among the participants in the Geneva and the Astana talks, Russia has exploited the limited presence of the al-Nusrah Front to annihilate East Ghouta and destroy the entire infrastructure with which the military groups had been bulwarking themselves, thus leading to scaling down their terms and conditions and enfeebling their negotiating position.
3 – Demographic change
The war on East Ghouta is a genocide aimed at generating a demographic change by destroying districts and residential areas and killing the maximum of civilians with Russian and Syrian air raids. This coercive displacement of civilians is but a prelude to changing the demographic landscape and settling those loyal to the regime and Iran there. The events of the Sayyeda Zaynab district and surrounding areas stretching from western Ghouta to the west of al-Qalamoun, where the Hezbollah leadership is stationed, corroborates this agenda.
4 – Paving the way for federalisation:
It has become clear that America is working towards establishing a federal system in Syria akin to what she has decreed in the Iraqi constitution. In order to execute this initiative with the backing of Russia, she must first undertake the following steps: 1 - Force the Syrian opposition to make further concessions by increasing the human cost among the civilians who represent the popular incubator of all the groups fighting the regime. 2 – Effectuate a host of demographic changes to act as borders for the cantons being generated currently through the blood maps. The war on East Ghouta comes as a part of the drive to consolidate the Assad-Iranian area of influence that will be under the protection of the decision maker in the Alawite state, namely Russia.
If the regime’s forces backed by the Russian jetfighters and the Iran-affiliated territorial forces succeed in seizing control of East Ghouta, the areas of influence will begin to take shape; these areas will be the prelude to instituting the federal system. According to the military operations on the ground and the plans that have been exposed, the observable areas of influence will be as follows:
1 – Northwest Syria, which includes the Euphrates Shield, Idlib and parts of Aleppo countryside, will be governed through an understanding between Turkey and Russia in the areas dominated by the opposition; but by and large, the area will be under Turkish influence.
2 – Southern Syria will be governed through an understanding between Jordan and America in Daraa and As-Suwayda. As for al-Qunaytra and the Golan, "Israel" has to be involved in the understandings over that region whereby the security of the Zionist entity will be taken into account. This area will be generally under US influence.
3 – Northeast Syria, including Raqqa and parts of Deir ez-Zor, which is an agriculture and oil-rich area, has come under the influence of America and her agents from among the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Kurdish Units; this area will form the Kurdish province and will be under US influence.
4 – The Coastal Region and Damascus, and every area the regime will be able to control from the countryside, Deir ez-Zor and Ghouta. It seems that Russia has been endeavouring to seize control of East Ghouta and add it to the areas of the Assad regime by ending the military presence of the opposition in all the areas surrounding the capital Damascus in order to corroborate the project of the Alawite state on the coast and the centre.
Ending the geographic pockets between the areas of influence through political settlements, military truces or genocides is a significant phase ahead of the move towards the political negotiations in Geneva, Astana and Sochi. These negotiations will consequently be a fait accompli and a political blessing for the status quo on the ground even if the stakeholders pretended their desire to maintain the Syrian state since its fragmentation would be delivered through a new federal constitution whose final touches are being drafted outside Syria.
Finally, the decision to maintain an Iranian presence in Syria in the forthcoming phase could be exploited to act as a deterrent for the Jewish entity should it remain intransigent towards the American solution to settle the Palestinian issue.
It is deplorable for any Muslim not to perceive that the plane of what is occurring in Syria and other parts of the Muslim world is a battle between Islam and Kufr. The nations of Kufr have gathered their forces against the Islamic Ummah; this is evident through their conspiring to kill Muslims and destroy their countries. Once the Ummah has perceived the plane of the battle, she will have no other salvation but by seizing control of her own affairs; otherwise her lands will continue to be an easy prey for the Kuffar to wreak further havoc. The savagery and crimes perpetrated in East Ghouta, and the hatred harboured by the Kuffar and their viciousness will not be the last of what the Ummah will suffer at their hands. They are like what Allah says: “Respecting no tie and no protective obligation with regard to a believer” [9 – 10]; unless the Ummah liberates herself from the influence of the Kuffar, regains her authority and becomes the conqueror rather than the conquered.
5 Rajab 1439h
22 March 2018