Political Observation - Severing Ties with Qatar

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Political Observation - Severing Ties with Qatar

The decision of Saudi, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt and other states to sever their ties with Qatar, and the decision of Jordan to scale down her diplomatic ties with Qatar is a part of the American pressure exerted on Qatar to twist her arm into proceeding, like the rest of the Gulf States, in meeting the requirements of the new phase of the Greater Middle East Initiative related to the regional files including the Gulf as well as the need to compel Qatar to comply with the Trump administration’s imposition of huge sums of protection money on the Gulf States. In respect of the requirements of the new phase of the American initiative, the events that have stirred up troubled waters should be read in the context of what Qatar had been ordered in terms of ceasing sponsoring "terrorism", backing the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas and relinquishing her cooperation with "terrorism” sponsoring states (Iran). Demanding such measures from Qatar following Trump's recent visit could lead to perceiving the following issues:

1 - The unfolding events are an extension of the trend America has been pursuing towards the region since al-Sisi took over; in other words, it is an extension of the phase in which the masses are forced into accepting the status quo, the policy of integrating the "Islamists" into power has been shelved and the imposition of secularism on the region with an iron fist continues unabated now that America has achieved her aims from the revolutions, namely fragmenting some of the countries of the region as a prelude to fragmenting the others. This phase of dismantling the Middle East necessitates shelving the state of balancing and containment the US had been pursuing through the UAE and Saudi who had been backing the liberal movement and the deep state while Qatar was backing the "Islamic" movement represented by the popular forces and Islamic groups headed by the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Balancing and containment had been a periodical necessity aimed at preventing the caravan of change from being side-tracked. Now, the second phase of the US initiative has started with America turning against the tools of the first phase, namely the former Qatari leadership, the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey and the "Jihadi" groups, swapping Qatar with Saudi and the UAE to lead the caravan of change in the region. Hence, reining in Qatar in is an inevitable upshot of the forthcoming phase and a natural outcome of the US policy of killing unwanted horses. 

2- The unfolding events and the stance of the countries concerned indicates a short-term strategy targeting Qatar with the aim of muzzling and preventing her from continuing to back the “Islamic” movement that has become surplus to requirement in the war on "Islamic ideology" and the fragmentation process in Syria, Libya, and Yemen. They also indicate the presence of a long-term strategy targeting Saudi and the entire Gulf region; this current crisis is the beginning of the categorisation and the shaping of family alliances in the Gulf States via Mohammed Bin Zayed and Mohammed Bin Salman which will pave the way for shoring up the liberal movement within the ruling clans, especially Aal Saud, and curbing the "Islamic" ideology with which the Saudi regime bulwarks itself. It seems the US is exploiting the tenure of King Salman and his son's control of the reins of power to shape the future of the kingdom away from the ideological backing Wahhabism has been providing since the kingdom's calls on Qatar to refrain from sponsoring "ideological Islamists" will boomerang on the Saudi regime itself. 

3 - In compliance with the American dictates, Qatar will most probably yield to the pressure and begin to gradually move towards harassing the champions of Islamic tendencies; this is expected to result in upping the ante against the opposition groups in the countries of the "Arab Spring" in order to besiege and quarantine them or even liquidate them. As for the resulting commitments imposed on Qatar, Donald Trump talked about the huge US budget deficit during his electoral campaign, suggesting the Gulf States should pay to reduce it; he had previously said: "The Gulf states have nothing but money. I'm going to get them to pay. We owe 19 trillion, we're not paying for it. Don't forget, without us, the Gulf States won't exist”; and after returning from the Riyadh summit he tweeted, addressing the American people: "Bringing hundreds of billions of dollars back to the U.S.A. from the Middle East - which will mean JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!"

It seems that the Qatari ruler's resistance to relinquishing the role his country had been assigned, reflected in his speech Aljazeera took off air after a few seconds together with financial evasiveness according to informed sources, is what prompted the Trump administration to instruct the Saudi rulers and their supporters from among the Gulf rulers to exert pressure on Qatar by severing diplomatic and economic ties, cutting air, sea and land traffic routes and expelling Qatari expatriates in addition to a host of harsh measures which included a threat of a putsch to subjugate her. 

These are the ruling cliques and what emanates from their continuance in office, ruling the noblest and purest Ummah; they are not ashamed of grovelling and surrendering humiliatingly to the American and other Western Kafir states just for the sake of maintaining their thrones, even if the price were fighting the religion of the Ummah, fragmenting her lands and plundering her resources in broad daylight! How long will our Ummah remain silent over those lowly traitors who acceded to power at a moment of oblivion?

12 Ramadhan 1438h

7 June 2017