Political Observation - Syria
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Political Observation - Syria
The outcome of the recent Astana talks has not yielded any major change from what had been expounded in our Political Observation on the "Conspiracy of the Safe Zones in Syria" of 21 February 2017, save for a change in the terms and a confirmation of the Astana talks as being the reference point rather than the Geneva talks. Instead of referring to "safe zones", an agreement has been reached on the "de-escalation zones" in four areas, namely the governorate of Idlib and its neighbouring districts in the governorates of Hama, Aleppo and Latakia, another area north of the governorate of Homs, another in Eastern al-Ghouta east of Damascus and another area in southern Syria along the borders with Jordan. The reason for the change of these vague terms, while the aims from establishing the areas are maintained, is the presence of a popular aversion to these divisive projects in addition to Russia's attempt to demonstrate to the world that she has not submitted to America's volition by achieving what Trump had sought from establishing safe zones, especially in the wake of the US strike on the al-Shayrat base in Homs. The Syrian opposition objected to the presence of Iran as a guarantor of this agreement because Iran and Russia had been perpetrating all sorts of criminal activities for years. The agreement failed to mention any withdrawal of the "Shia" militias in Syria and at the same time, it gave the guarantor states the right to undertake all possible measures to pursue the fight against Daesh and Fatah al-Sham (formerly al-Nusrah), as well as other groups within and outside the de-escalations zones. This practically means that Russia and American and their surrogates will continue to have a free rein in pursuing the killing and shelling in any place and against any group under the guise of combating terrorism. The Turkish request to turn the area between Jarabulus and Azaz up to the city of al-Bab as a safe zone has been rejected.
Moreover, the areas dominated by the Kurds east of the Euphrates, i.e. from Aljazeera to Tal Abyadh through Ain al-Arab remained outside of this agreement; this proves that America is yet to finalise the borders of the Kurdish province. She is biding her time and awaiting the opportune conditions to expand this area since Turkey is strongly opposing the presence of a Kurdish passageway in northern Syria. However, the main gain achieved by America and Russia from this agreement, apart from laying the foundations of these safe zones, is shifting the reference point of the political solution from Geneva and the UN resolutions to Astana. The signing of this agreement occurred in the presence of the UN envoy De Mistura. The significance of this change is reflected in the fact that the idea of a transitional government has been discarded and the implementation of the fragmentation process will take place step by step.
Hence, the de-escalation zones agreement is part of the international conspiracy against Syria and it is moving towards imposing the fragmentation on the ground in a gradual manner via the Astana reference point
that has bypassed the Geneva reference point which focussed on a transitional ruling period.
The comprehensive political solution in Syria emanates from what is being designed in terms of federations rather than the previously proposed political solution through the Geneva talks. This reveals the extent of the opposition's collaboration, having placed their own safety first and accepting the dirty functional role assigned to them despite everything they have been subjected to in terms of besiegement, killing and displacement by Russia, America and all their death squads.
This also confirms that the Russo-American understanding is the vehicle ferrying the American project in the Middle East, especially the issue of reshaping the region geopolitically despite the rifts between them cropping up from time to time.
10 Sha'aban 1438h
7 May 1017