Political Observations - The Battle of Aleppo and Plan B
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
The city of Aleppo has been subjected to a fierce onslaught in the past few days. The aerial bombardment perpetrated by the Russians, the regime’s forces and their allies, namely the Iranians and "Shia" militias, has been unprecedented. This onslaught coincided with America announcing that she would increase her troops in Syria by dispatching 250 soldiers, bringing the number of soldiers deployed at US military bases in Rumaylan and Ain Al-Arab to 700.
America and Russia announced on 29 April 2016 that they had reached an agreement on a regime of silence that only covered eastern al-Ghouta in Damascus and northern Latakia. They also announced today that talks are being held to extend the temporary truce to Aleppo. And as the areas under the Syrian opposition's control in Aleppo were shelled, Daesh intensified its shelling on the Turkish side of the border in an accelerating manner with the obvious aim of increasing the pressure on the opposition forces and their support bases on the ground by giving Turkey a fitting excuse for failing to open safe passages. and providing a pretext for the Turkish forces to stage a ground intervention. This pretext is further reinforced with the continued advance by the Kurdish Protection Units (YPG) on the ground as they reveal their criminal acts against the masses, and by reports broadcasted by Daesh’s Amaq news agency of the clashes between Daesh and Turkish forces alongside the Syro-Turkish border along with the destroying of a number of Turkish tanks.
The expected Turkish ground intervention will not be to protect the people of Aleppo nor will it prevent the efforts to establish the Kurdish province, even though it will be propagated as such. It will be rather to execute Plan B which stipulates an incursion of Turkish forces to intervene in northern Syria under the pretext of fighting Daesh. The real aim, however, is to entrench each of the warring factions in their positions in order to shape the provinces which will lay the foundations for the effectual rise of Federal Syria, and in order to establish and protect the borders, turning them into a fait accompli open to negotiations.
The Turkish government has announced that military arrangements are being undertaken along her borders with Syria to consolidate the presence of the army in that area; Turkish prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu , told Aljazeera on 20 April that a ground intervention inside Syria was possible. He said: "If Turkish security necessitated a passage, we would obviously undertake all the measures inside Turkey or inside Syria."
These political and military moves came after the latest round of talks had ended with the High Negotiations Committee rejecting the offer of an "extended government" with the regime of Bashar Assad which Russia adopts with the blatant blessing of America.
As the opposition rejected the offer, since they realise that their power base and their support base would be averse to the inclusion of Bashar Assad in the transitional period, America set about executing Plan B aided by Russia after Secretary of State John Kerry had declared that it was hard to distinguish between the terrorist groups and the moderate groups in Aleppo. Russia labels al-Nusrah Front and Daesh as "terrorist" organisations and America deems Daesh a "terrorist" organisation; hence, Kerry's statement came as a justification for the Russian shelling and for the increase of US soldiers, all under the guise of combating "terrorism". This campaign against "terrorism" will provide the pretext for the Turkish ground intervention mentioned earlier, especially as Daesh had reported the eruption of clashes across the border and announced the destroying of three Turkish tanks.
While America gave the Russian jetfighters the green light to kill the Muslims in Aleppo and allowed the arrival of Iranian regular brigades such as Brigade 65, she on the other hand prevented, recently, the delivery of military supplies to some opposition groups, especially advanced anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems. This confirms that America wants the current battle for Aleppo to be a political and military turning point in her endeavours to fragment Syria by exerting more pressure on the hard nucleus of the opposition after dealing them and their support base a heavy blow.
If Russia is executing the aerial strikes on Aleppo, the American forces are providing all the logistical help to the PKK and the Kurdistan Democratic Union Party (PYD) on the northern Aleppo battlefronts. As a result of this American support, several operatives of "Jaysh al-Sunnah" who have recently declared their merger with the "Ahrar al-Sham" Movement, were killed.
In order to humiliate the people of Aleppo further, destroy their resolve and execute America's volition to effectuate sectarian and ethnic segregation, the criminal "Kurdish Protection Units" (YPG) displayed the slain bodies of the "Jaysh al-Sunnah" operatives after they had mutilated them in a deliberate celebratory fashion filled with hatred and malice and paraded them through the streets of Afrin north of Aleppo. At the same time, Russian jetfighters were deliberately destroying the infrastructure and the public amenities of Aleppo.
The Russian and Syrian regime jetfighters are deliberately targeting schools, hospitals, medicine stores, water treatment plants, fire stations, civil defence buildings and ambulances. This corroborates further the presence of a deliberate belligerent policy led by America and Russia to exert further pressure on the powerbases and incubators of the opposition who are averse to including Bashar Assad in the transitional period and to finalise the border demarcation of the Kurdish, Alawite and Sunni provinces.
What reveals further the aims of that belligerent policy is the threats the regime has issued to launch a major onslaught on Aleppo. Despite the heavy shelling, a huge media campaign themed "Aleppo Burns" and several demonstrations have been staged in several countries to act as a pretext to stop the fighting at the required time once the pressure exerted on the obdurate opposition and their support base has paid dividends and the border demarcation of the provinces to be generated has been finalised.
What is unfolding in Syria is an international conspiracy executed with guns in order to further fragment the Muslims' lands and weaken them further. The American forces, currently being increased, will act as the nucleus for major military bases to help establish the Kurdish province in particular and to work towards establishing the borders of the Kurdish, Alawite and Sunni provinces. If the Kuffar were to succeed in this plot, Allah forbid, their volition would be stronger in working towards fragmenting Turkey, Egypt, Saudi, Yemen and Libya as well as other parts of the Islamic lands, Allah forbid.
Hence, the only solution to salvage Aleppo and her people is for the Turkish army to seize the initiative and impose a no-fly zone in northern Syria, since Aleppo and her outskirts represent a strategic depth for Turkey, under the pretext that the current battles threaten Turkey's security. As for the radical solution to these travesties occurring in the Islamic world, it will materialise when the Ummah seizes the initiative and perceives that the plane of the struggle is between Kufr and Islam, that the Kuffar want to add fuel to the fire in the Muslims' lands which they ignited as the Ummah was unmindful after they had evoked the ethnic and sectarian fitna in the region and attempted to destroy the Ummah's hope in establishing the Khilafah by duping the Muslims with a fake Khilafah that has distorted its reality and its essence as a saviour of the Ummah from what she has been enduring in terms of decline, humiliation, loss of dignity and deviation from its original task, namely carrying the message of Islam to salvage humankind from the darkness of Kufr. This fake Khilafah has driven some of the Ummah's children away from the concept of Khilafah and even driving the whole world away from Islam by projecting it as being a religion of killing, vengeance, criminality and hatred rather than a mercy to mankind. And this is exactly the image that the criminal America and the West want to project to their people and the world about Islam. So will the Ummah with her wise men and forces awaken to repel the onslaught of Kufr and establish the Shari'ah of Allah (swt) and convey the message of magnificent Islam?
23 Rajab 1437h
1 May 2016