Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem

Political Analysis

The events of Georgia:

Georgia is one of the Caucasian states situated in the lebensraum of Russia.  Ever since he seized power in Georgia through the so-called “Rose Revolution”, Mikheil Saakashvili has been working towards enhancing the capabilities of the Georgian army, be it in terms of armament, or training, for which he invited hundreds of US officers and military experts. Mikheil Saakashvili grew up and graduated in America where his father worked as a lawyer. He has been promising to restore sovereignty over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two provinces that broke away in the wake of several disputes with the government of Tbilisi. Most of the locals are of Russian origin. Russia granted them her citizenship and imposed peacekeeping forces, with Russian troops forming the bulk of those forces.
 
It seems that Mikheil Saakashvili, whose country was described by Bush as the “beacon of freedom”, carried out his adventure in the hope of achieving sovereignty over South Ossetia and then Abkhazia, thus fulfilling his ambition of making his country a viable candidate for NATO and EU memberships, which stipulate full sovereignty of the potential members over all their territories.

Mikheil Saakashvili had not ventured and given the orders to his armed forces in isolation of the wishes and the encouragement of his American masters, who aim to besiege Russia and stifle her within her lebensraum, to get closer to the Caspian Sea oil and to undermine the Russian arms industry which is based on a cooperation formula with the Ukraine in particular, whom America backed her NATO membership together with Georgia   at the Bucharest summit in April this year while France and Germany objected to this lest they upset Russia.
 
Mikheil Saakashvili was stunned by the violent and swift Russian response. His forces were annihilated in South Ossetia. The Russian army attacked three military bases and the main seaport and advanced deep into Georgian territory. All this occurred in record time, which confirmed the Russians’ calculated readiness to deal a severe blow against any country attempting to undermine their lebensraum. The response reflected also one of Russia’s new lines of strategy devised during Putin’s term of office and whose successor Medvedev pledged before the Duma to proceed according to it, in addition to the powerful message sent to any entity that falls within Russia’s lebensraum, not to get too close to  The Americans will not give up trying to prize the Caucasus away from Russia and they are even expected to resort to inciting the Chechens and the Ingush among others to cause problems to Moscow, until it yields to the American ambition  of shaping the world in a manner that keeps it submissive to her decisions this century.

Although the fighting has stopped, the confrontation in the Caucasus will continue according to the Analyst Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Institute. He said: “The Caucasus drama has put the conflict on a yet higher plane.” America will continue to back the independence of the republics situated within Russia’s vital space and to encourage them to rebel against the authority of Moscow, with the aim of confining Russia to her own space, thus hampering Putin’s plans to divide Europe and split her affiliation behind the American policy, especially towards Russia. Putin, who is effectively still in power, has been working conspicuously towards separating the European interests from the American ones, using the issue of the missile defence shield and the weapon of gas and oil.

In response to America’s persistence to forge ahead with establishing the missile defence system on the borders with Russia in Poland and the Czech Republic, Putin mentioned in his speech before the Duma in April 2007 the possibility of suspending the treaty on conventional forces in Europe. He then announced in June 2007 that Russia would point her missiles towards major European cities. Then he proposed establishing a joint Russo-American radar base in Azerbaijan in order to develop missile shields that cover that whole of Europe. All this was a strategic manoeuvre and a clear message that carried an important political message to the European milieux, urging them not to allow the United States to drag them and implicate them in policies that did not serve their interests. Besides, Europe depends on Russian gas at the rate of 40% and it is set to reach 70% by 2030. Also, Russia controls virtually all the oil and gas pipelines coming from the Caspian Sea, which supply Europe with energy.

12th Shaaban 1429h

14th August 2008

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