Bismillah Al-Rahman Al-Raheem

The Developments in Chechenia

 The military operations continue in Chechenia with extreme ferocity. However, the intensity of these operations is less than they were before the exit of the Chechen fighters from the capital Grozni. That sudden exit, occurred after the popularity of Putin had started to diminish and after certain moves inside Russia had called for the end of the war and revealed the true extent of the human losses among the Russian soldiers. However, the exit of the fighters from Grozni enabled Putin and his generals to claim that the war has been settled in their favour and all they had to do is to complete their control over the mountainous areas to which the Chechen fighters had withdrawn. This will help increase the popularity of Putin and secure his victory in the forthcoming presidential elections. Yuri Primakov realised this when he declared his withdrawal from the electoral race for the presidency.
 
It is clear that the West, especially the United States, would wish to see Putin win the presidential elections; thus it would not be unlikely that the exit of the Chechen fighters from Grozni was inspired by the United States in order to secure a Putin victory in the elections. However, the task of the Russia armed forced in Chechenia is expected to get harder after the elections, for once the West secures the win for Putin in the elections, they will support Chechen rebels substantially, be it directly or through the American agents in the Islamic world, such as Saudi, who started sending aid a while back, according to what Shamil Basayev revealed. This is so because the United States endeavours to weaken Russia and deprive her from dominating the Caucasus region, which is rich in oil and gas, with an estimated reserves of 200 billion barrels of oil.

America endeavours to diversify her oil and gas resources and the means of its transportation; in addition to her control of oil in the Gulf, she is working assiduously through her major companies to control the oil in the Caucasus. Hence, the American president sponsored a deal between Turkey Azerbajan and Georgia during the conference of Security and Cooperation in Europe which was held in Turkey. The deal involves laying a pipeline that transports the Caspian Sea oil from Baku, via Georgia, to the Turkish seaport of Cihan on the Mediterranean.

Therefore, it is important for America to remove the Russian influence from the areas of production and transportation of oil, by linking the countries that had gained independence from the former Soviet Union to Nato and the European Security and Cooperation Organisation. It is also important for her to dismember the Caucasus away from Russia by depleting her through a war that will last long, then by the international intervention to protect the refugees and imposing sanctions against an already weakened Russia for violating human rights in Chechenia.

It is clear that the Russians realise that their presence in the region is temporary, hence the horrific crimes that they committed against the civilians and their reluctance to rebuild what they had destroyed in Chechenia. They do not act as if Chechenia is a Russian land nor as if her citizens are Russian subjects. What makes one’s heart bleed is if the exit of the fighters from Grozni were deemed a Russian victory, then their return will be deemed as an American victory.
 
The Media Forum of Hizb ut-Tahrir

20 Thul-Qi’dah 1420h
25th February 2000

www.hizbuttahrir.org