Political Observation - Is there an International Struggle between America and Russia

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم 

Political Observation - Is there an International Struggle between America and Russia

The recent diplomatic crisis between Russia on the one hand and Europe and NATO member states headed by America on the other was triggered by the poisoning incident of Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter on 4 March 2018. 

The strong reaction to the incident by Britain, America and Europe, the latter currently being embroiled in a trade war with America, could not be conceived unless the strategic threat Russia poses to the US was perceived. Russia is a nuclear power and she has adopted a new doctrine pertinent to her right to an immediate response should nuclear weapons be used against her; she has also been attempting to impede America’s plans for Central Asia and to take control of its oil and supply routes, notwithstanding the Sino-Russian strategic relations and, Russia’s support for Turkey and Iran since they represent the two most strategic gateways - the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. Expelling dozens of Russian diplomats resulting in the closing of several Russian consulates by several European countries has come at the behest of the US who had sought to exert pressure on Russia and besiege her since she deems her as the second major factor impacting negatively on the progress of the American initiatives in the Islamic region. Despite the ostensible personal relationship between Trump and Putin, Russia, one of the main backers of Turkey’s rebellion against America and NATO, is impeding American manoeuvres in Syria, Afghanistan, the Ukraine, Crimea and other areas where Russian influence is manifest.

Hence, the issue of the Russian spy is not merely an assassination in which Russia in implicated but rather a scheme designed to reshape Western relationship with Russia within the framework that serves America’s interests since she is viewed as the architect of European military and security policies. The first aim which America is seeking to achieve by instigating the Russian spy incident is to compel Moscow’s arm into severing her tactical alliance with Turkey and comply with Western conditions on several regional and international files.

The circumstances and the timing corroborate the fact that the poisoning of the Russian spy was fabricated by Britain and her master America since Russia has nothing to gain from carrying out the assassination which is more likely to place her in awkward situation only days ahead of the Russian elections and a few months ahead of the World Cup. Moreover, Russia exchanged Sergei Skripal with Britain for Russian spies and had he posed a major threat to her national security, she would have killed him rather than handing him over to Britain in the first place.

Hence, the poisoning of the Russian spy and his daughter was most probably carried out by either British intelligence or its American counterpart, or both, in order to achieve the aforementioned aims, the most important of which is generating Western animosity towards Russia, thus compelling her to comply with American demands in international and regional relations. Russia is not the only country in possession of the nerve gas Novichok, which corroborates further America and Britain’s implication in the assassination. Britain is in possession of this nerve gas at her Porton Down military research facility that is incidentally few miles away from Salisbury where the Russian spy was assassinated. The exaggerated reaction of Europe and America reflected in the expulsion of tens of Russian diplomats and the closure of Russian consulates, which did not happen even at the height of the cold war between the Western and Eastern blocs, acts as yet another proof of Britain and America’s involvement in the poisoning incident.

Moreover, ambassador Nicki Haley, the US permanent representative to the UN, stated that the poisoning incident was not the only reason for the expulsion of Russian diplomats but also the Russian comportment in Syria and Ukraine as well as the activities of Russian intelligence officers in the US.

What worries America and her Western allies most is the role that Russia is undertaking in helping Turkey in her rebellious trends and her policies pertaining to ridding herself from the custodianship of NATO and the EU. This Russian stance poses a strategic threat to the West as it undermines the unity of NATO and its functionality throughout the world and may turn Turkey into a role model for other states seeking to break away from the Western custodianship system. Russia is effectively facing a blatant threat from America and her allies. The escalating tension we have recently witnessed and the ensuing diplomatic crisis and the further sanctions imposed on Russia are merely a prelude to a host of Western plots against Russia which aim to fragment Russian lands, dominate her resources and besiege her with a NATO security belt with which Russia’s links to Central Asia would be severed and her attempt to build oil pipelines away from areas dominated by the West akin to the “TurkStream” pipeline – which was built to avoid having Russian gas passing through Ukraine - would be thwarted.

However, it seems that the Kremlin rulers are aware of the Western plots. This is why Vladimir Putin turned defence into attack and declared during his speech on 1 March 2018 that Russia reserved the right to respond immediately saying “Any use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, weapons of short, medium or any range at all, will be considered as a nuclear attack on this country. Retaliation will be immediate, with all the attendant consequences.”
However, despite the recent unfolding events, there is no international struggle between Russia and America over the international situation. Russia lacks the willpower and the means to topple America from her unilateral dominion over international decision- making and this does not constitute part of her plans in the foreseeable future. Russia is merely cooperating with America in certain files related to her interests and which do not impinge on her short-term or long-term national security. This is evident in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Egypt. This cooperation achieves a host of financial, military and political interests to Russia and at the same time helps somewhat the execution of the US agenda.

As for the apparent rifts between America and Russia, some of them are staged, such as the rift over Bashar Assad’s tenure or the military campaign against the Syrian opposition around Damascus, while others are genuine, such as the right of the Kurds to an independent state, the dominion over the oilfields or the borders of the areas of influence in Syria; this explains why America and her allies tend to target Russian armours and shell a number of Russian or Syrian positions. As for the other issues related to the areas close to Russia such as Central Asia (Afghanistan) and the Baltic region (the Ukraine and Crimea), the rifts are genuine because the point at issue is related to Russia’s own existence and to her national security. 

As for the Russo-Turkish relationship, it also constitutes one of the genuine rifts between Russia and America since the latter fears that Moscow’s alliance with Ankara may undermine NATO’s role in achieving America’s security interests. Hence, the noticeable tensions between America and Russia could either be genuine or fabricated; however, the genuine rifts are most of the time ironed out through trade-offs over outstanding issues between the two sides.

28 Rajab 1439h
15 April 2018 

 

Feature

  • Political Observation - The Riots in America 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Riots in America

    Electing Donald Trump to the post of president in the US expressed from the onset the philosophy and strategy the US inherited from Europe, which is built on the “whites’ racial centrality”. During his presidential inauguration ceremony, Donald Trump surrounded himself with white men in a move seen as a reaction or rectification of the mistake of appointing the African American Obama to the White House.
    Trump’s accession to power reflected a shift from political diplomacy to the strategy of confrontation which is characterised by imposing the fait accompli, shunning common concepts and adopting an obstinate stance. This policy is built on the thoughts of Kevin Phillips, one of Nixon’s chief strategists, and is known as “positive polarisation” which was described by the US Congress in 1970 as follows: "The Administration is working the hidden veins of fear, racism and resentment which lie deep in Middle America. Respect for the past, distrust of the future, the politics of 'againstness'."

  • Political Observation - Syrian Regime in the Middle of the Storm 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم


    Political Observation - Syrian Regime in the Middle of the Storm 

    Several indications have recently emerged suggesting that a consensus on an alternative regime to Bashar Assad’s is in the offing. Assad’s regional Iranian backer has been dealt a heavy blow and Russia is no longer eager to protect his survival now that she has secured her interests and her share in the reconstruction plan via Turkey and the Syrian opposition, as well as US approval. Other indications have also cropped up in the shape of a cleavage within the hard nucleus of the regime, Bashar’s attempts to disrupt the draft constitution and to upset the ceasefire agreement. 

  • Political Observation - Syria and the Iranian Role in the Region  

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Syria and the Iranian Role in the Region

    The "Israeli" airstrikes on Syria on 4 May coincided with the pressure being exerted on Iran to leave Syria, Germany’s decision to classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation, the attempts to dismantle the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq with the defection of several armed factions affiliated to them and the plans to integrate them into the Iraqi armed forces and severing their affiliation to Iran with the support of the Shia authority, al-Sistani, who has now perceived the Iranian drive to dismantle the Shia authorities outside Iran and bring them under her control. They also came amidst a host of expected changes in the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) whose former president, Anas al-Abdah, launched a scathing attack on Iran on 4 May and called for its expulsion from Syria, and who is now in charge of the negotiations’ file. 

  • Political Observation - Reading Libya’s Reality after Haftar’s Defeats  

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Reading Libya’s Reality after Haftar’s Defeats 


    Khalifa Haftar’s forces suffered a series of crushing defeats one year after he had launched his military campaign on Tripoli, bankrolled by Saudi and the UAE and backed militarily and logistically by France, Egypt, Russian mercenaries and the Rapid Support Forces of Sudan’s General Hamidati. On 25 March 2020, forces affiliated to the government of national accord (GNA) in Tripoli and backed logistically by Turkey launched operation “Peace Storm” and succeeded in seizing control of all the cities along the border strip with Tunisia.

  • Political Observation - The Oil Price War is Political and Economic  

     بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Oil Price War is Political and Economic 

    Although the aspect of the oil price war is economic, it however equally incorporates a political objective since the issue has a host of roots linked to America’s dual containment policy targeting both Russia and Europe. It is akin to an extremely delicate surgical procedure since the target is Russia’s head, downsizing her economic progress and curbing her drive to develop her war machine and broaden her foreign ambitions.

    Saudi is merely a cheap weapon, or an oil station to cover the dollar and supply the US with live ammunition for the US’s political battles to subjugate her potential rivals who may threaten her unilateral dominion over the international situation. 

  • Political Observation - Is Coronavirus a Conspiracy or a Pandemic? 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Is Coronavirus a Conspiracy or a Pandemic?

    Conspiracies have been a reality since old times: The nobles are conspiring to kill you [Al-Qasa-20]. Hence, one cannot deny them and without a shadow of a doubt, there are several motives and validations to judge the presence of a conspiracy. However, there is a difference between judging the presence of a conspiracy based on indications corroborating an opinion, and an opinion on the presence of a conspiracy based on a conspiracy theory without any indications, imagined indications, false information, the feeling that there is a conspiracy due to a lack of trust in the enemy or based on the prevalent stereotypical thinking and analogy one usually makes in major events and generalising it on every similar phenomenon.

  • Political Observation - Idlib: Test for the Turkish Guarantor 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Idlib: Test for the Turkish Guarantor

    Tensions between Turkey and Russia have escalated due to the latter’s failure to adhere to the outputs of the Astana process and the Sochi agreement. The tension increased further after the forces of Bashar Assad had shelled a Turkish checkpoint, killing eight Turkish soldiers. And despite her retaliation, Turkey found herself facing new rules of engagement.

    Turkish forces fortified their presence at existing checkpoints and set up new ones despite the siege imposed on some of them by the forces of the Syrian regime which is desperately attempting to seize control of other parts of Idlib especially now that it has taken control of the two international highways, namely M4 Aleppo – Latakia, and M5 Aleppo – Damascus, spurred by its success in dominating the cities and towns situated along them with hardly any resistance. This led some observers to suspect the presence of a Russo-Turkish agreement on letting the Syrian regime seize control of the two international highways.

    What is noteworthy is that the Idlib region has been subject to a host of Russo-Turkish understandings since the Sochi conference of September 2018; it enjoys a security and geographic importance among all the stakeholders of the Syrian file, especially Russia, Turkey and the Syrian regime. The Sochi agreement stipulated establishing a demilitarised zone since the region overlooked the Russian bases in Hmeimim and since Turkey’s interest in the region was evoked by security matters pertinent to the influx of refugees who have turned into an electoral leverage that may damage the AKP and the popularity of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in addition to aggravating the burden on Turkey’s economy. Turkey is eager to make her presence felt in Idlib to prevent the Kurdish expansion west of the Euphrates, not to mention her eagerness to maintain the trump cards that help her avoid being marginalised by Russia and America or excluded from any international understandings or agreements that may be concluded at her expense.

    As for the Syrian regime, the region of Idlib means fulfilling the pledges it has made to its supporters, namely working towards spreading its dominion over the whole country, thus diverting attention away from the economic downturn, regaining control over the transit trade via the M4 and M5 highways and reviving its ailing economy.

    The current military conflict in Idlib between the regime backed by Russia and the Syrian opposition backed by Turkey has revealed the frailty of the Astana process and the Sochi understandings on the de-escalation zone. The escalation for its part has revealed that Turkey may possibly be dragged into the Syrian quagmire, which is what America is currently plotting. Despite America’s open support for Turkey’s strikes against the Syrian regime’s positions and despite her aversion to the Russian airstrikes against the civilians, this, however, does not rule out the presence of a host of mutual interests and secret understanding between America and Russia over submerging and depleting Turkey in northern Syria.

    Nevertheless, a direct conflict or an open confrontation between Russia and Turkey remains unlikely due to the significant commercial and military ties between them, such as the S400 missile defence system deal, the TurkStream pipeline project and the nuclear plants Russia is building in Turkey, not to mention the geostrategic importance of the Black Sea and Russia’s need to turn Turkey into a political ally rather than an enemy. It seems this is what Erdoğan meant when he said in his speech of 4 February: “There is no need to enter into a struggle with Russia at this stage. We have with her some very significant strategic initiatives.” Nevertheless, Erdoğan stressed Turkey’s intention to resist the Syrian regime and Russia’s attempt to control Idlib; and despite her eagerness to maintain her relationship with Russia due to the mutual interests they share, Turkey did not, however, hesitate to express her anger towards Russia and to threaten the Syrian regime as they violated the Astana process and the Sochi understandings. Hence, after the Syrian regime forces had killed eight of her soldiers, Turkey decided on 3 February to suspend indefinitely the joint patrols she had been conducting with Russia in northeast Syria.

    If we took into account the Turkish ultimatum to the Syrian regime to withdraw its troops by the end of February from all the de-escalation zones it has controlled in Idlib, and amid Turkey’s persistence not to withdraw from her besieged checkpoint, coupled with the Russian delegation’s failure in Ankara to achieve any satisfactory results to dissipate Turkish national security concerns or restore the stakeholders commitments to the Sochi understandings, Russia and Turkey are likely to adopt a brinkmanship policy vis-à-vis the Idlib issue. This policy will lead the Russians and the Turks to resort to military escalation to preserve their positions without engaging in military conflict or an open war that would prompt other parties to throw their hats into the ring, such as America and NATO, who have declared their support for the Turkish standpoint without, however, undertaking any steps on the ground.

    Nevertheless, and despite the complications of the Syrian file, Erdoğan realises that Russia could not harm him severely but she could facilitate his policy in Syria, or suspend her cooperation, reshuffle the pack and impede his policies; this would only be in respect of the political and security aspects. As for America, she could harm Erdoğan in security, economic and political matters. This is why he is attempting to please Russia and not anger America.

    Today Turkey is facing a major challenge in terms of her power and her credibility now that she has placed herself as the guarantor and the official ally of the Syrian opposition, and now that she has presented herself as a regional power, not only in Syria but also in Libya. However, with the recent events in Idlib continuing and escalating, Turkey has found herself compelled to prepare for reaffirming her credibility and power by dispatching huge reinforcements to northern Syria and fortifying each checkpoint with a full battalion. Russia will most probably respond positively to the calls for a ceasefire and order the forces of the Syrian regime to halt their advance, be content with what they have achieved so far, especially after seizing control of the two highways, and pave the way for negotiations that would take into account the reality on the ground, so as not to embarrass Turkey further and compel her to launch a major military operation against them, especially that Erdoğan did urge Russia openly not to impede a Turkish military operation in Idlib. “You are not the side we are dealing with but rather the Syrian regime; and we hope you would not place any obstacles before us” he said. In another statement, Erdoğan said: “We will carry out military operations if necessary.” He even told the Russians bluntly: “The Assad regime does not bat an eyelid without the knowledge of the guarantors, and we will not allow for the situation to go on like this in Idlib.”

    The main reason behind the glitches in the Turkish foreign policy, especially in Syria, is the Turkish leadership’s reliance on a Machiavellianism and pragmatism and on the nationalistic aspect. On the other hand, the Turkish leadership has overlooked the doctrinism and firmness which represent the strongest deterrent in the struggle against the rapacious colonial powers. The outcomes of firmness and defiance were evident in Operation Peace Spring which impeded America’s plans to establish a Kurdish pocket and compelled Russia to condition herself with the operation and acquiesce to the Turkish request.

    The Muslims, whose unity has been fragmented and their powers scattered by the Kufr powers who harbour hatred towards their Islam, which has in the past led them to the pinnacle of glory and might, hope that Turkey will be led by the offspring of Mohammed al-Fatih and the Sultans who do not fear the blame of anyone for the sake of Allah the Almighty, so that they may restore the dignity, unity and might of this Ummah. And this for Allah the Almighty is not hard.

    21 Jumada al-Oolah 1441h
    15 February 2020

     

     

     

  • Political Comment - Deal of the Century Announcement 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Comment  - Deal of the Century Announcement


    US president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday 28 January 2020 his peace plan for the Middle East and pledged that al-Quds would remain the “undivided” capital of "Israel". He also proposed the two-state solution according to the formula previously expressed by Benjamin Netanyahu who had said “let it be a state on our conditions, and they can call it an empire afterwards.” Donald Trump added that he would not force any "Israeli" or Palestinian to leave their homes. For his part, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas rejected the plan saying “we rejected Trump’s plan from the onset and we will not accept a state without al-Quds.” He stressed that Trump’s plan “will not be executed and it will end up in the ash heap of history.” And in a communiqué released by Egypt’s foreign ministry, Egypt urged “the two sides to "undertake a careful and thorough consideration of the US vision to achieve peace and open channels of dialogue, under US auspices.” A large part of the Deal of the Century announced on Tuesday has already been physically implemented by the US administration by annexing al-Quds and deeming it as "Israel’s eternal capital", recognising "Israel’s” annexation of the Golan Heights and forfeiting the right of return via the resettlement scheme, especially in Jordan. 

  • Political Observation - Escalation between Iran and America 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Escalation between Iran and America

    The US administration and the Iranian government have brought down the curtain on the tense situation after they had both corroborated their positions vis-à-vis the issue of the dispute, namely Iran’s role in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, which America seeks to restrain.

    As for the Gulf region, America and Iran remain in agreement on the Iranian role towards it, namely continuing to play the role of the scarecrow that compels the Gulf States to seek the help of the US. This is conspicuously corroborated by US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who expressed his satisfaction and his backing of the Saudi war on Yemen which, according to him, yields billions of dollars to the US treasury and by the comments directed at Donald Trump, reminding him that the US did not react to the Iranian attack on Saudi refineries in the same way she acted to deter Iran in respect of her conduct in Iraq and Lebanon. Hence, it is imperative to distinguish between Iran’s approved role in the Gulf and her disruptive role in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. 

  • Political Observation - The Assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Head of Iran's elite Quds Force 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation  - The Assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Head of Iran's elite Quds Force

    In our previous Observation issued on 1 January 2020 and entitled “US Raids on Bases of Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq and Syria, we forecasted the “destroying of the capabilities of the PMF that support the influence of some of the most prominent Shia parties.” We also construed from the political data that the measures warranted by US interests “not only necessitated a radical treatment of the PMF but also those who stood behind them”, namely Iran, Eventually, it did not take long for the Pentagon to announce today, Friday 3 January 2020, that “at the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization.” The statement added that “General Soleimani also approved the attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad that took place this week.” Yesterday (2 January), US defence secretary Mark Asper said: “There are some indications out there that they may be planning additional attacks. Do I think they might do something? Yes, and they will likely regret it.” He added: “If we get word of attacks, we will take preemptive action as well to protect American forces, protect American lives.”

  • Political Observation - America’s Traps in the Eastern Mediterranean 

     بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - America’s Traps in the Eastern Mediterranean 

    By retracing the domestic mobilisation in America against the vigorous activity generated by the Turkish agreement with Libya, it has transpired that America’s consent to the Libyan government of al-Siraj to sign the agreement with Turkey was a carefully planned procedure. The Trump administration instructed pressure groups to work towards including a host of clauses to the draft budget in order to reiterate America’s commitment towards supporting the stakeholders and to send a message of deterrence to Turkey. Through the draft budget, the US Congress has reactivated the administration’s role in energy projects and urged it to play a more effective role in security matters and lift the embargo on arms sales to Cyprus. All this comes as the new European Commission prepares to assume its functions, which mean the East Mediterranean crisis will undoubtedly be imposed on the agenda and will sabotage the agenda of Emanuel Macron who has accused the nationalists of colluding to fragment Europe, stressing that those nationalists aiming to divide Europe were in fact her first enemies. 

  • Political Observation - Lebanon, Jordan and Arab Protests 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Lebanon, Jordan and Arab Protests 

    First: Amid the relentlessness of the dynamism, most of the Lebanese parliamentary blocs have reached an agreement on naming Hassan Diab as a new prime minister; according to media reports, he has won 69 seats from Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, the Free Patriotic Movement, the Marada Movement, the National Bloc, the Nationalist Party and the Consultative Gathering. Only six deputies from al-Hariri’s movement voted for him. This prime minister, who is viewed as independent and a technocrat, is a former minister and vice president of the American University of Beirut. 

  • Political Observation - Algeria Elections 


    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Algeria Elections

    Ever since the Arab Spring erupted, including the 22 February protests in Algeria, the strategy of the Arab regimes in tackling the popular dynamism in the Muslims’ lands has been virtually consistent in implementing the principle of “it is imperative to change the situation in order to preserve the status quo” by changing the faces, replacing the masks and oppressing the opposing masses in the most repugnant manner so that once they have exhausted their utmost escalation and the oppression has overwhelmed them, they would disperse and their hearts would be filled with despair; Muslims are banned from exercising their will to reclaim their authority. This is what happened in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, at the army headquarters’ square in Sudan, at Rabaa al-Adawiya Square in Egypt, and during the Black Decade executed by the criminal Gaid Salah against our people in Algeria. 

  • Political Observation - American Supremacy - Turkey - Britain - the Deep State 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - American Supremacy – Turkey – Britain – the Deep State

    1- The United States has been leading the international situation since 1990. However, it is facing real difficulties and fresh developments in administration and implementation. Being the unrivalled leader in the international situation does not necessarily mean that countries would be hasting to execute it's decisions, but rather that it is the leading authority and the influential power in international affairs.

    The United States faces civilisational and value challenges and a very serious threat emanating from the Ummah of Islam. Therefore, it has built from these challenges a basis on which it has been managing international relations, and fighting Islam under the pretext of terrorism, using it as a cover to implement her policies without objection from the other major powers as they share the same values. In this regard, it has no ideological issues with the conventional major powers since their policies intersect with those of America and they tend to cooperate in their implementation. But America has been facing a host of economic challenges from China and Europe. Yet, it is not a trade war between China or Europe and the United States as much as it is about Europe’s and China’s desire to ensure their societal and economic security and to enhance their political distinction.

    This is the reason why the United States occasionally allows other major powers to play a role in their own spheres of influence or directs them to fulfil a specific role, as is the case for Russia in Syria, France in Libya, and the UK in Sudan, in order to either topple the ruler and prevent the regime from collapse and falling into the hands of the masses, or to prevent the rulers from relying on their people to resist their pressures, or to implicate the major powers and stir differences and competition among them as is the case in Africa, Ukraine and the Baltic states.

    This also includes the United States' provocation of China in relation to the demands of the pro-US democratic opposition in Hong Kong justifying further sanctions against China, dragging Europe into the mix and cementing sanctions against Russia, internationalising the once US unilateral sanctions, and perpetuating tensions among the major powers and hence their constant need for the US. And should they attempt to evade US pressure and devices, they will face discontent from inside their borders such as the deepening divergence of the British political powers and the internal unrest in France in response to their stance on the relationship with Russia as well as NATO.

    As for the satellite regimes, their survival hinges on them continuing to play the role entrusted to them; therefore, each regime is eager to have credentials to present to the international sponsor, which may lead it to cross the line, as was the case with Iran exceeding its mandate that required deterrence.

    Finally, we must pause here to consider the fact that the US is not a unified entity as it claims to be, or how it wants the world to see it. It is currently facing friction between the financial and religious political faction on the one hand (such as the Mercer & Koch with Trump faction) and the money capital factions (such as George Soros, Bill Gates and Apple) which are exacerbated by Washington’s reluctance to tame countries like India and Saudi Arabia to open their markets and remove obstacles to free trade, and thus, their differences on how the White House should deal with Saudi Arabia rise to the surface, as well as the contradicting practice of imposing liberalism on Muslims in order to dominate them intellectually and economically, and their reluctance to embrace it at home, opting for populism and right-wing ideas while encouraging Europeans towards this course to justify their own political extremism.

    2- It is true that Erdogan has freed Turkey from its dependency on the US, however, he hardly initiates any action that may provoke the US unless in defence of Turkey’s security and interests; and because he recognizes the rules of the political game and knows the extent of his own political weight, he only engages in actions that achieve his interests, even if he notes a consistency with the American approach, an example of which is his position supporting NATO, and his response to Macron’s “brain death” of the alliance comment, and another is his support of Malaysia, Pakistan, Qatar and Indonesia in forming an Islamic league outside the framework of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which intersects with the interests of the US administration in completely stripping Saudi Arabia of its status as the patron of the Islamic world as a means of tightening its strings under the pretext of openness and change, as well as transferring the initiative from the Arab Muslims, weakening their position as the centre of the Islamic ummah, due to how they are regarded by the non-Arab Muslims, as well as weakening Arabic as a central component in understanding Islam and its impact on the development of the Islamic world. Preventing the rise of the Islamic ummah and containing Turkey and Erdogan's moves is among the interests of the West that it seeks to protect.

    The maritime boundary treaty between Turkey and Libya can be explained within these lines; it exacerbates the conflict between Egypt and Turkey and dwarfs Egypt's stature in the region.

    3- It is impossible to understand the UK’s conduct in the region before reviewing information on the dependency of the regimes in the region, which clearly became servants to the US during the “Arab Spring”, especially the Gulf states. It is also necessary to understand the longstanding “special relationship” between the US and the UK and the resulting breach of the UK political circle leading to the British intelligence services working side by side, shoulder to shoulder, with the American intelligence services in what became known as the Gladio Organization in Europe, and subsequently, in Syria since the beginning of the uprising. Furthermore, it is necessary to consider the actual magnitude of the UK, which some of its politicians have literally described as the UK has become completely dependent on the United States” after conceding the right to launch its ballistic weapons unless US preapproval was accorded, and after documents from Margaret Thatcher’s era revealed that she sought the help of the then American President Ronald Reagan in the Falklands crisis, as well as how the UK did whatever the US directed her to do in the era of Tony Blair whom the British press nicknamed George Bush's poodle.

    Furthermore, US control over European security through NATO and its military bases as well as its control over the British economy, particularly through the investment of more than $500 billion providing millions of jobs for UK citizens, and through ownership of shares in the most important British and French oil companies, in addition to the US’s overt intervention in the British political scene such as Trump's support for Boris Johnson as prime minister of the UK, or US interference in the recent UK elections, which the Conservatives won, and files on US plans to demonise Labour Party leader Corbyn were leaked. This explains the stance of The Times newspaper against Corbyn, whose board includes the former head of MI6, the British Secret Intelligence Service, Sir John Scarlett, and main supporter of Tony Blair, the US accomplice in its war in Iraq. All of this makes the UK’s sovereignty and Europe’s independence a fantasy.

    It should also be noted that there is no UK project that is independent from US projects in the region, or that the UK has a say in international affairs except as a consultant, or that it acts except in the context of implementing US directives or joint cooperation, such as Tony Blair’s assumption of the role of the international envoy for peace of the Quartet on the Middle East after his resignation from his post as the UK prime minister.

    It should also be noted that the British/American policy in Europe itself is identical such as Margaret Thatcher’s support of NATO’s continued existence despite the end of what justified it in the first place, and despite the US utilizing it as a tool of domination over Europe, Thatcher justified the necessity of the alliance by telling the Europeans in 1990 that "you do not cancel your home insurance policy just because there have been fewer burglaries in your street in the last twelve months”, as well as Brexit which received strong support from the US President Trump.

    4- The Deep State is a political term that denotes the body that controls or influences decisions, and its existence is real and it is a natural state in all governing regimes in the world, even in the Islamic states, despite its different shapes, goals and mechanisms. The deep state is the political parties, security services, financial factions, and similar entities, such as commercial, industrial and military stakeholders, and needless to say, it exerts great influence on the security, military, media, and parliamentary institutions of the state. It is noteworthy that rulers tend to take advantage of the concept of the deep state to direct popular ire towards an abstract enemy that the people are not able to identify and oppose, therefore, their arrows have no target. As for the opposition, they take advantage of the concept of the deep state to justify their failure or their collusion with the regime, and make of the deep state a wailing wall justifying their weaknesses and negligence while rationalising their integration into the regime and their reconciliation with the opponents of their popular base. Therefore, exposing political figures and unmasking them through the political fight has always been the effective ideological approach in undermining the governments and political circles, competing with them, overthrowing them, uprooting the deep state and attempting to wrestle leadership of the ummah and march it towards its goals.

    17 Rabi’ al-Akhir 1441h
    14 December 2019 

     

  • Political Observation - The Kuala Lumpur Summit 2019 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Kuala Lumpur Summit 2019

    Malaysian president Mahathir Mohammed has invited some leaders of the Islamic countries and a crowd of scholars and intellectuals numbering about 400 to attend an Islamic summit in the Malaysian capital for economic and financial objectives, as well as some spiteful designs that emerged during an earlier statement by the Malaysian president Mahathir Mohammed in which he said his country was “very disappointed by Saudi.”

    What concerns us in this context is the value-based dimension that has been reflected in the marketing headlines of the summit such as the aim determined by the Malaysian president, namely debating the “situation of the Islamic Ummah” and “moving cooperation by Islamic countries to new horizons” as well as “reviving the spirit of the Islamic world”, against the backdrop of the challenges and obstacles Muslims have been facing, and what the Malaysian president pointed out, such as abuse of power, corruption and the charge of “terrorism”. 

  • Political Observation - Political Debate on Turkey and Erdogan’s Situation from an International Perspective 

    Political Observation

    Political Debate on Turkey and Erdoğan’s Situation from an International Perspective

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Question: One of the exigencies of sound understanding of current political affairs is perceiving the reality of the states in terms of either being influential in the international situation, proceeding in the orbit of influential powers, client states or independent states. In successive publications by the party, it has been suggested that Turkey has been working towards becoming independent of the US in her domestic and foreign political decisions. Hence, what are the facts indicating this change, especially as the events could be construed as being a rebellion by a client state due to a clash of interests, or a concoction of some specific roles Turkey would execute as part of an American plot to deceive domestic and international public opinion? And would it be possible to issue a leaflet expounding the opinion of the party in a conspicuous and conclusive manner vis-à-vis Turkey’s status quo?

    Answer: Political analysis involves exploring and diagnosing current events and facts in complete isolation of emotions, inclinations and beliefs; and the domestic or foreign political standpoint of the state does not necessarily correlate with its doctrinal identity. For instance, if Erdoğan became independent, this does not necessarily mean he has become religiously righteous. As for the viewpoint towards Erdoğan, it is gauged by his adherence to Islam and his good political performance; this, up until now, has not materialised. He still adopts a dangerous belief suggesting that “religiosity is for individuals rather than the system and the state”. This is what he has declared during more than one televised interview and such a belief has nothing to do with Islam. 

    As for his political performance and his domestic and foreign alliances, these are still dominated by narrow expedient criteria. In order to shed light on the reality of Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, it would be imperative to perceive the following:

    1 – The topic of Erdoğan is without a doubt tricky due to his aversion to some US policies such as his rejection of the Kurdish entity and support for others such as his contribution to the Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI) declared by George Bush Jr to the G8 in 2004. Hence, although the functions that the rulers undertake on behalf of major powers tend to heavily influence the perception of their affiliation to foreign powers and subsequent categorisation as collaborators, judging the rulers’ affiliation in this manner falls under comprehensive analogy, generalisation and logic. This inevitably corrupts the opinion. It would be, therefore, imperative to refer to the political concepts that regulate judgement in order to expound political situations, events and comments and link them to the pertinent sound information because gathering news to support or disprove without scrutiny and validation with reality would lead to corrupt processing and subjective receipt of news and information. 

    First, we ought to realise that affiliation and collaboration are not a perpetual contract from which the agent cannot break free, or which prevents the agent from changing sides or becoming independent. Such contracts are based on expediency and they can be broken if any occurrences warranting such a decision arise. A collaborating ruler is the one who colludes with a foreign side in implementing its initiatives and agendas; thus he has no willpower in foreign policy and he is restricted in domestic policy. As for the independent ruler, he is in control of his foreign and domestic policies irrespective of his ability to exercise his willpower or not, provided the impediments preventing him are valid and not conspiratorial because the independence of the ruler is linked to his volition rather than his ability to effectuate it. 

    2 – The difference between the client state and the satellite state lies in the type of the rulers’ relationship with major powers. The client state is led by a collaborator of a major power; thus, he executes what is required of him in foreign policy without any objections. As for domestic policy, he has the competency to handle it provided it does not impact on the interests of the major power. In client states, the political milieu, by and large, collaborates with a major power; nevertheless, it is the decision-maker and executor within the state of the foreign and domestic policy which determines whether he is a collaborator or merely one of the major power’s men. 

    There are several types of collaborators; some of them are coerced into succumbing since their survival is in the hands of their masters due to being implicated in issues threatening their lives or their reputations. Such types of collaborators have no choice but to execute the orders of their masters even if their lives were under threat; this is usually deduced from their behaviour which is by and large characterised by misadventures and disregard towards their subjects, such as al-Sisi, Mohammed bin Salman and bin Zayed. They can easily be replaced and rebellion is far from their minds. And some of them are subservient on the basis of a deal that helps them accede to power, without being implicated in a scandal or immoral issue and blackmailed by his masters as a result. This type of collaborator could become independent or defect to another power in case they are targeted by their masters, once they obtain the ability to threaten the interests of major powers and do away with them, as is the case with Turkey (and Iran), if only its leaders were doctrinal and brave. Ability in this context does not mean possessing military power matching the major powers’ but rather having a popular base to protect them, and having a state free from any foreign influence that may destroy their resistance in the face of major powers. 

    As for the satellite state, i.e. the state that proceeds in the orbit of a major power, it is totally independent in its domestic affairs. It can freely choose its rulers and its ruling system and determine its technilogical and commercial development. It may also compete with major powers in other than the political field. And it is nevertheless subservient to a major power in its foreign policy, as is the case with the European states that are not affiliated to the US; these states proceed in America’s orbit voluntarily or feel compelled since such an approach guarantees their national security, even if it clashed with their immediate interests, and matches their capacity and influence. These states do not proceed with a major power conspiratorially and treacherously as is the case with the affiliated states which execute the instructions to fulfil the interests of major powers even if it were at the expense of their own interests and societal and national security. 

    This is unlike the states that secure the interests of a major power in one single issue rather than every issue, since executing an instruction in one single issue denotes that the ruler is one of the men of a major foreign power rather than one of its agents or one of those who proceed in its orbit. Such rulers may clash with major powers and may deal with more than one major power in various issues of their foreign policy. 

    3 – The description of the state is linked to the situation of the ruler and it changes according to the change in the situation of the ruler. He may become independent or he may turn into a man of a foreign power after having been a collaborator or an independent ruler. The point at issue in describing the state of affairs of the states and their rulers is identifying the progress of events and interpreting the contradictions that have crammed the political scene in the Middle East in an unprecedented manner, namely America’s targeting of its agents and the situation in which they have ended up, in order to depict the outlines that expound the status quo instead of resorting to logic and generalisation which never lead to a sound and controlled perception. This is achieved by discerning the standpoints, motives and actions of the rulers and the side with which they proceed; if the standpoints of the ruler in the files that are deemed crucial to his country clashed with the policy of the US, this would mean that the relationship is ambiguous and thus it would be wrong to interpret them without probing the reality behind targeting him to ascertain whether the issue threatens his continuance in power or not. 

    As for the question “what are the facts indicating this change, especially as events could be construed as being a rebellion by a client state due to a clash of interests, or a concoction of some specific roles Turkey would execute as part of an American plot to deceive domestic and international public opinion?”, rebellion means independence and whether this is temporary or otherwise, this depends on Erdoğan ending or continuing his rebellion; this scenario would be down to two matters:

    1 – If his rebellion emanated from his own convictions and abilities to sever his ties with America in which case he would remain independent.

    2 – If he is targeted by America for a reason, then the relationship evolves with the reason in existence and in its absence. In other words, permanent independence depends on willpower rather than the status quo or the cause of rebellion; and in both cases, rebellion means independence. 

    It is clear that Erdoğan’s rebellion against America is a reaction to its continued targeting of him. He is unlikely to return to the domain of obedience despite the fact that he has been seeking a conciliatory relationship on condition that his future and the future of Turkey would not be undermined. As for the presence of a host of understandings on certain issues, such as the agreement concluded in the wake of operation Peace Spring, these occur on the basis of interest rather than affiliation. 

    The tension between Turkey and America is not a mere difference or a passing crisis because it is linked to a host of strategic issues such as the Kurdish and Syrian files and their impact on the Turkish entity, and the relationship with Russia who initially entered the Syrian scene with a green light from America but soon managed to control the situation, have a say in the matter and barter with America over Crimea and Ukraine. The rift between Erdoğan and America is also linked to America’s attempt to topple him in the last two elections and to Turkey’s non-compliance with the dictates of the US administration, in addition to their differences over several files. 

    Turkey had been the US’s partner in the Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI) and Erdoğan never made a secret of it. He had been hoping to topple the Syrian president and establish a regime with an Islamic flavour which would have shored up his authority. He had believed the American promises before he realised that the fireball was heading in his direction, that the fragmentation of Syria would be applied to Turkey herself and that the dismantling of Deash was designed to replace it with the Kurdish Protection Units (YPG); this is why America backed the YPG in controlling the areas of Daesh and this confirmed to Erdoğan about America’s intentions to target him and divide the Turkish state. Those American designs widened the rift between America and Erdoğan and drove the latter to attack the Kurdish units stationed in Afrin to thwart America’s plan to germinate a Kurdish entity from the army she had established along the Syrian-Turkish border. It is also clear that Russia is exploiting the conflicting interests between Turkey and America, agreeing to all Turkish military operations along the border to widen the rift between Ankara and Washington. As for America, she hoped Erdoğan would be embroiled in a war of attrition that would move the conflict inside Turkey, impacting negatively on Turkish security and the economy, undermine the foundation of the regime and blast it from within. Moreover, America’s successive targeting of Turkey’s security and economy to weaken and topple Erdoğan has been conspicuous, not to mention the noticeable American backing of the Turkish opposition in recent years via Saudi and the UAE. America also exploited the rift between Ali Babacan, Ahmet Davutoğlu, Abdullah Gul and Erdoğan to fragment the AKP. Consequently, some leading figures within the party have been calling for maintaining the relationship with America and the West while others, headed by Erdoğan and Binali Yıldırım, have been calling for resisting the American designs. 

    What is palpable is that Erdoğan has turned his back on some of commitments to America and he has been attempting to impose a host of restrictions on its initiatives in the region. This does not place Turkey in the camp of affiliated states; and securing some of America’s interests does not categorise it as an affiliated state since it is doing so out of interest. America’s persistence to bring Erdoğan back to the domain of obedience or get rid of him has driven him towards seeking total independence. Erdoğan’s stance has been characterised with stubbornness and defiance coupled with action on the ground since the rift began and came out in the open, especially in respect of the Kurdish file, the campaign to neutralise his formidable opponents at home, the relationship with Russia and the arms deal he concluded with her and the tense relationship with Europe. And despite the presence of some muscle-flexing, propaganda and an attempt to enhance his own popularity and that of his party, the rift is nevertheless genuine. 

    There are certain files related to the strategy of the US in which Turkey is still involved, but at the current moment” her involvement is merely pragmatic and expedient and not because she is affiliated as was the case in the past. This is corroborated by the S400 missile deal Erdoğan concluded with Russia, his dispute with America over the F35 jetfighter order, impeding the rise of the Kurdish entity, purging Turkey from the most important organisation used by America against Erdoğan, namely the Gülen organssation, turning the Turkish ruling system into a presidential system to widen his powers and strengthen his domestic influence at the expense of America’s agents. 

    The aforementioned denotes the change in Turkey’s situation; and this is her current situation. America could, however, recapture Turkey if it succeeded in toppling Erdoğan and putting an end to his policy. It is worth mentioning in this context that the US is attempting to recapture Turkey at this stage under the principle of “Turkey is bigger than Erdoğan”, according to analyses and opinions of some political forces within the US decision-making circles such as Senators James Lankford, Thom Tillis and Jeanne Shaheen; they believe that Putin’s showdown with the Turkish president and the threat of sanctions in the wake of the Russian jetfighter downing has forced the latter to position himself exactly where Russia wanted. Hence, economic pressure would eventually lead to subjugating Erdoğan or toppling him in a soft manner. The secret behind America’s tackling of the Turkish crisis in this manner lies in the fact that Erdoğan has succeeded in purging Turkey from the most powerful US hotbeds of influence within the political circles, army, security services and judiciary, in addition to entrenching his constitutional competencies via the presidential system. 

    In the light of a genuine rift between Erdoğan and America, it would be implausible to interpret Erdoğan’s statements as being designed to deceive domestic and foreign public opinion, such as the statements in which he said: “Turkey is no longer that weak state that obeys orders; she has become a powerful state which would not put up with any hostility towards her” and “certain powers are attempting to divide the countries of the region between them, and there are those who think that Turkey should be part of this dividing but our answer is: We have no land to offer you.” Erdogan also stated that his country would not be intimidated by anyone when the matter was related to her survival and her future. 

    Finally, having monitored the political progress of Erdoğan and his party since his rift with the American administration erupted, it has transpired that Turkey is heading towards total independence in her political decision-making; it has become clear afterwards that Turkey is an independent state in her political decision-making and that she does not execute any role assigned to her. However, she is unable to act in numerous political files domestically and abroad due to constraints i.e. her failure to act is due to inability rather than volition and due to the balance of power tilting in favour of the major states and the world order. When she executes the volition of the US, she does it according to her own interest rather than affiliation. As for her reluctance to act on certain files with the ability to do so, such as adopting the system of Islam, this is down to the beliefs and the concepts of the ruler or to pragmatic and expedient considerations, or due to the sensitivity and precariousness of those files; and in ruling matters, this has no bearing on the status of the ruler or the state in terms of its independence or otherwise. 

    Some of us may ask, if it has become preponderant to the party that president Erdoğan has effectively become independent in his political decision-making and that Turkey is capable of defending herself against a war of intervention, and since she is the most recent country connected to the Khilafah State, why would the party not attempt to meet president Erdoğan and review with him Turkey’s domestic and foreign issues, as well as the rest of the Muslims’ issues, and give him some advice?

    The answer to this is that the party had been eager to have such as meeting; it compiled a letter requesting from president Erdoğan to meet a delegation of the party. The issues the party wanted to discuss with Erdoğan were determined and the letter was handed about a year ago to one of the Turkish embassies. The embassy returned the letter requesting a translation into Turkish, and once the letter was translated it was delivered once again by hand. The party has not received a reply yet despite the fact that it had sent the letter to whom is capable of delivering it to president Erdoğan from inside Turkey. Alas, the party’s request for his delegation to meet the Turkish president remains unanswered up until now. 

    For the perusal of the Shabab, here follows the transcript of the letter the party sent to the Turkish president.

    17 Rabi’ al-Awwal 1441h
    14 November 2019

      

  • Political Observation - The Events in Lebanon 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Events in Lebanon

    The tax that the Lebanese telecommunication minister proposed on calls made via social media apps such as WhatsApp was the spark that ignited the protests against the Lebanese government. For the tenth day in a row, the Lebanese republic has been witnessing protests calling for improving the standards of living and toppling the clique of corruption exemplified in the government and the icons of the regime, especially those affiliated to 8 March Forces such as Hezbollah, the Amal Movement and General Aoun, the president of the republic. The popular dynamism has also targeted the leaders of the so-called 14 March Forces headed by prime minister Saad al-Hariri. 

     

  • Political Observation - Establishing the Safe Zone in Northern Syria 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Establishing the Safe Zone in Northern Syria

    Five days ahead of the deadline set for the pullout of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the borders of the safe zone the US administration and Turkey agreed upon, the Russo-Turkish agreement was announced stipulating the end of the Turkish military Operation dubbed Peace Spring and extending the deadline to allow for the withdrawal of the SDF from the remainder of the 440 kilometres-long and 32 kilometres deep border strip targeted by Operation Peace Spring. Operation Peace Spring resulted in the Turkish army and their allies, the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), officially known as the Syrian National Army, dominating an area of around 130 kilometres-long and 32 kilometres-deep.

  • Political Observation - Will al-Sisi Continue to Rule Egypt 

     

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Will al-Sisi Continue to Rule Egypt

    The first video by artist and contractor Mohammed Ali, in which he slammed Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and accused him of financial corruption together with his wife and a host of commanders in the armed forces, appeared three weeks ago. Mohammed Ali went even further and called on al-Sisi to step down and apologise to the masses for his corruption and for plundering the country’s riches. Mohammed Ali was emboldened by the response his videos had received so he upped the ante and set about urging the masses to rebel against al-Sisi and take to the streets. He also called on defence minister Mohammed Zaki to arrest Abdul Fattah al-Sisi in order to put an end to his misgovernment and plundering of public funds. The following day after protestors had taken to the streets, Mohammed Ali warned of the dire consequences should defence minister Zaki fail to get rid of al-Sisi; he even threatened to return to Egypt on Friday and call on protestors to stage a million-people march to end the tenure of al-Sisi.

  • Q&A - US Foreign Policy under Trump 

    Q&A - US Foreign Policy under Trump

    Dear Brother,

    I propose this topic for discussion due to its importance in understanding the status quo of world politics.

    The most influential bloc in the world, which virtually controls the whole world, is the bloc of capitalists in America, namely banks and financial institutions. This group seems to have made up its mind and chosen the policy of international hegemony which manifested itself after the collapse of the Soviet Union. During the tenures of Bill Clinton and George Bush, they pursued policies that led to the dangerous situation of 2008 due to their huge costs, such as the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. Then came Obama with a host of policies aimed at saving the banks, but his approach led to aggravating the debts, thus accentuating the spectre of economic collapse rather than eliminating it.

  • Political Observation - Yemen: America's New Equation & Unfolding Events in the Gulf 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Yemen: America's New Equation & Unfolding Events in the Gulf

    The attacks of the Houthi group on Saudi installations have recently escalated in a relentless manner. This escalation in the war moved to a new stage following the attack staged by the Houthis on Wednesday 12 June 2019 with a cruise missile on the airport of Abha in the border area of Asir and the drone attack they launched on Saturday 15 June 2019 on the airports of Abha and Jizan in southern Saudi.

  • Political Observation - Bouteflika's Resignation: Chief of Staff Coup against the Presidency and the Intelligence Apparatus 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Bouteflika's Resignation: Chief of Staff Coup against the Presidency and the Intelligence Apparatus

    Algeria has entered an important political juncture since 2 April 2019 after the presidency had announced through a communiqué attributed to Abdul Aziz Bouteflika who was quoted as saying: “I am honoured to officially inform you that I have decided to end my tenure as president of the republic.” This statement would not have been issued had it not been for the direct warning of the army's chief of staff to the presidency that article 102 of the constitution should be activated immediately.

    The statement by the army staff, issued less than two hours before that of the presidency, read: "We believe that there is no room for more time to be wasted and that the proposed constitutional solution of activating articles 7, 8 and 102 should be implemented immediately, and thus, start down the path that guarantees a framework of constitutional legitimacy to state affairs. Therefore, our decision is clear and irreversible, as we stand with the people until their demands are met in full, undiminished.”

    After Chief of Staff Ahmed Gaïd Salah issued a statement on 26 March 2019 demanding the application of Article 102 of the Constitution pertaining to the vacancy of the president’s office, the presidential wing, controlled by Said Bouteflika in coordination with the intelligence wing represented in the person of Mohamed Madien, also known as General Toufik, the ex-director of military intelligence services before its dismantlement, maneuvered to circumvent the orders of the General Staff.

    On 30 March 2019, the Chief of Staff issued a statement declaring that "on 30 March 2019, a meeting was held by persons whose identities are known, and will be revealed in due course, for the purposes of launching a vicious smear campaign through various media outlets and social networks against the people’s national army to convince the public opinion that the Algerian people refuse to apply Article 102 of the Constitution. "

    Although the chief of staff's statement did not name the members of the "gang" as he himself described it, Echourouk, a TV channel with close ties to the army, said that the meeting included Said Bouteflika, Mohamed Madien (former chief of intelligence) and Othman Tartak, the current head of intelligence, as well as members from the French Intelligence Services. "Ill-intentioned parties are working on a plan with the aim of discrediting the National People's Army and dodging the legitimate demands of the people," the army statement said.

    What made the situation even more threatening to Ahmed Gaid Salah was the meeting that took place on the same day between Mohamed Madien (General Toufik) and former President Liamine Zeroual at his residence in the capital. With the power struggle intensifying and becoming known to the public, and fearing it to be misappropriated by Said and Toufik, Zeroual issued a statement on 2 April 2019 detailing his meeting with General Toufik in which he stated "for the sake of transparency and because of our duty to respect the truth, I would like to inform you that I received, on 30 March, retired Lieutant-General Mohammed Madien at his request; he conveyed a proposal that I spearhead a committee that will oversee the transitional period, and assured me that the proposal was made in agreement with Said Bouteflika, adviser to the presidency.”

    General Toufik, faced with Liamine Zeroual’s refusal and because of the serious accusations leveled against him by Gaid Salah via the Echorouk channel, was forced to issue a statement on 1 April 2019 defending himself, especially against the charge of conspiring with the French intelligence. General Toufik said in a written statement: "The accusation against my person regarding my meeting with foreign intelligence agents, in order to raise issues directly related to our national sovereignty, is a deliberate attempt at defamation in order to harm my reputation as a well-known personality inside and outside the country, under the pretense of thwarting all foreign interference be it political, cultural or economic. " He went on to say that "under no circumstance will I give up the principle of defending national sovereignty, no matter how serious the political problems the country is going through are, it is the constant rule I respect and follow in all my actions".

    It is as if all this maneuvering by the two wings of power (presidency and intelligence) had not incited any reaction from the army’s chief of staff until Said Bouteflika, acting in the name of the president, made a ministerial cabinet reshuffle on 31 March 2019 in which he kept Noureddine Badoui in the prime minister position and got rid of the most hated ministers by the Algerian general public. But he did not stop there, as he issued a statement on 1 April 2019 in which he declared that Abdelaziz Bouteflika will resign from office before 28 April 2019, the official date of the end of his term, the statement also spoke of a "transitional period" that would start upon his resignation. Not only that, but the statement talked of "important decisions" that will be announced at a later date in order to ensure the "continuity of the state."

    This in particular, convinced Gaid Saleh that the "gang", namely Said Bouteflika, backed by General Toufik, were maneuvering to topple him by means of an executive order removing him from the post of chief of staff and deputy defense minister. Circulating the news of his firing and replacement by General Said Bay on different social networks increased Gaid Salah’s misgivings, a move that resulted from their failure to recruit Liamine Zeroual into their plan and turn him into a Trojan horse, i.e. a transitional president who will enable them to safely navigate the pressures of both the army and the demonstrators.

    The army leadership acted swiftly by ordering an encirclement of the public radio and television headquarters, as well as the house of Said Bouteflika for a brief time, in order to convey the message that any decision to remove him from his position will push the Chief of Staff towards arresting all members of the Bouteflika family. A few days earlier, a number of businessmen with close ties to the presidency, including Ali Haddad and the Kuninav brothers (Redha, Tarek and Abdelkader) and the Tahkout brothers (Muhieddin, Nasser and Bilal) were arrested. A clear signal to Said that if he did not announce the vacancy of the presidency, Gaid Saleh would not hesitate to arrest him and all members of his family, especially after he reneged on their agreement where he announced the resignation of his brother in return for a guarantee of his and his family’s safety, in addition to an honorable exit for his brother Abdelaziz.

    2 April 2019 was an important date in Algerian modern history; the power struggle at the highest levels of the Algerian state was largely resolved that day in a public manner, even if it appeared to be done within the confines of the constitution. Bouteflika’s resignation was not only a blow to the presidential wing, after the head of the Republican Guard Ben Ali joined the meeting convened by Gaid Salah at the general staff headquarters which included senior commanders and leaders of the six military areas in addition to the heads of the gendarmerie, ground, air and sea forces, but it was also a crippling blow to the intelligence wing represented in General Toufik, the face of Algeria’s deep state which is an extension of the French influence in the country.

    Despite the fact that businessmen such as Yessaad Rebrab (who is loyal to General Toufik and supported by France) have taken to the streets to join the demonstrations and support the popular movement, this does not mean that they are in agreement with the Chief of Staff’s Wing. It just means that they want to ride the wave of demonstrations in the hopes of directing their ship towards the coast of France where General Toufik or his underling General Ali Ghadiri or even Ali bin Flis are waiting in the hopes of becoming president and successor to Bouteflika.

    As for the repercussions of the events, the constitution states that the head of the Council of the Nation, Abdelkader Bensalah, will take over as president for a transitional period until the general elections take place. But this seems unlikely, given the widespread public rejection of Bensalah and Badoui’s cabinet, which was appointed by Said Bouteflika. Therefore, Said has no choice but to replace Abdelkader Bensalah, Noureddine Badoui and even the President of the Constitutional Council, Tayeb Belaiz, with popular figures, approved by Gaid Salah.

    In case of stalling or failure to find acceptable figures, the other solution is that Gaid Saleh activates Article 7 (the people are the source of power) and 8 (the constituent authority is owned by the people), relying on Article 28, which gives the army the right to take the mantle of the defending power of the nation in order to preserve its independence, sovereignty and national unity.

    If the second path were taken, the practical solution would be either to agree on a person that both the public and the opposition parties approve of, or to institute a presidential council. In both cases, the army will be the custodian of this transitional phase until a president is elected by the people, after the creation of a new electoral law and an independent electoral monitoring commission. However, the issue of a constitution rewrite remains the subject of controversy between calls for a revision by a constitutional committee ahead of the elections and demands to form a constituent commission to draft a new constitution that will become a starting point for the presidential and legislative elections.

    Despite the new developments and decisions following the demonstrations of Friday 5 April 2019, it is certain that Gaid Saleh (and the entire military establishment behind him) succeeded in positioning the Command Staff at the highest level of the power pyramid within the state after dealing a crippling blow to the presidential wing and after weakening the intelligence wing within the context of a three-sided power struggle that has dominated Algeria's modern history. Finding a successor to Bouteflika depends not only on the internal balance of power in the state apparatus but also on the approval of international powers led by the United States of America, the biggest influencer in the country. 

    No one can deny the foreign influence on decisions pertaining to the presidency and the upcoming elections. This was reflected in the visit of a US congress delegation to Algeria on 23 February2019 under the pretense of discussing regional issues. In this meeting, James Inhofe, the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, and Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia discussed issues of security and peace in the region such as the Libyan and the Mali file, in addition to the Western Sahara conflict. The US delegation traveled to the Tindouf camps the next day where he met with Polisario leader Ibrahim Ghali.

    General Ali Ghadiri for his part sought America's approval as well, as the French newspaper Le Monde Afrique can attest in an article published on 9 June 2017. The publication spoke of "a meeting between Ghadiri and a former Algerian government official with US intelligence officials at the Washington Embassy in Paris where post-Bouteflika arrangements were discussed.”

    Given the importance and gravity of the situation in Algeria, on 2 March 2019, the heads of State of Italy, Spain, France and Germany met to discuss the impact of any political and security developments on Europe. Changes to the situation in Algeria, if they go against the major European countries’ wishes, will directly impact the European colonial security, be it temporary through large waves of immigrants, or strategic, if Muslims take power or just be part of the government.

    In summary, the biggest losers in all of these conflicts are the Muslims in Algeria who are still far from imposing their authority in managing the affairs of politics, finance and culture, and in choosing their Islamic Aqeedah as a basis on which a state for all Muslims can be built. Muslims in Algeria should not be fooled by Gaid Saleh’s recent stances, who is being aggrandized by some people while others champion him as the country's savior according to the "Savior theory."

    The army’s stance in Algeria, supporting some of the people’s demands against the presidential wing, is merely a "sacrifice" of the head of the regime in order to preserve its basis and its secular essence that has been a lackey to Western powers since 1962. In other words, what has been happening is a means to ensure the continuity of the secular state through deliberate changes in order for the regime to reproduce itself using the "constitutional vacuum” as a scarecrow to frighten the populace.
    Therefore, we should not be surprised if some members of the Bouteflika family get arrested, especially Said, who has been the target of many legal actions brought against him by "citizens" to the Public Prosecutor's Office in the capital on charges of forgery and impersonating the head of state by seizing the seal of the republic. Such measures, under increasing public pressure, are only intended to give people the illusion that the army is standing with them. Moreover, they are concessions made by the colonial Kafir’s underlings in order to absorb the anger of the people and divide the ranks of the demonstrators concerning the limits of popular demands that can be achieved.

    It is enough to ask oneself, where was Ahmed Gaid Saleh before 22 February 2019, the start date of the popular demonstrations in Algeria?! Hasn’t he aggrandized Abdelaziz Bouteflika and supported his candidacy for a fifth term? Was not Gaid Saleh a protector of the Bouteflika family and all their political, financial, media and intelligence gangs?! Was not Abdelaziz Bouteflika the one who promoted Gaid Saleh to the post of chief of staff and then deputy defense minister, having protected him twice from the efforts of Mohamed al-Ammari (former chief of staff and scion of the French army) to force his retirement when he was commander of the ground forces?!

    The simple and easy answer to these questions is enough to make us realize that what happened and what might happen in Algeria is only a repeat performance of what happened in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya where the head of the regime was sacrificed for the survival of the Kafir Western guardianship regime, subjugating Muslims and preventing them from taking back what is theirs and becoming captains of their ships, free to govern themselves with their beliefs and free to control their wealth. Unless we get rid of the colonizer’s underlings' tyranny and uproot its means of controlling our destinies, talk about electing a president, drafting a constitution or forming a parliamentary council is just talk, all hammer and no nails.

    The secular kafir will not put an end to his pressure on the masses, pushing them towards acceptance of the status quo, not only through the use of violence and terrorism similar to that of the black decade following the 1992 coup, but also through the means of regional pressure. The criminal Khalifa Hafter’s choice to carry out his attack on Tripoli and attempt to bring it under his control through iron and fire, something that has been given the greenlight by Western powers, is but a prelude in order to put pressure on the Muslims in Algeria and give the army generals a justification as to why they will not be able to meet the demands of the people under the pretext of confronting a foreign aggression or the fear of a new black decade.

    29 Rajab 1440h
    5 April 2019  

  • Political Observation - The Presidential Crisis in Algeria 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Presidential Crisis in Algeria

    The pressure of the street protests and the dictates of the world powers have apparently compelled the ruling cabal in Algeria to stage a fresh manoeuvre to absorb the anger of the masses towards Abdul Aziz Bouteflika’s candidacy for a fifth term. In a move designed to circumvent the masses’ demands for a regime change, Algeria’s ruling cabal released a letter attributed to the embalmed Bouteflika in which he announced that he would not run for a fifth term and that the elections would be deferred until a “national conference” is established to draw up a new constitution which would be submitted to a national referendum. In this context, the functions of the Chairman of the High Independent Authority for Elections Monitoring (HIISE) Abdel-Wahab Derbal, as well as the members of the Authority have been terminated; and the task of the “national conference” will not be confined to drawing up a new constitution but also to setting the date of the presidential elections for which Bouteflika will not stand.

  • Political Observation - Venezuela and the Myth of Western Democracy 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Venezuela and the Myth of Western Democracy

    Venezuela has been witnessing an acute political division since 23 January 2018. Backed openly by US president Donald Trump, Canada and several South American and EU states, President of the National Constituent Assembly Juan Guaidó declared himself “interim president”. Following this announcement, the Venezuelan president severed diplomatic ties with Washington and accused the US administration of plotting to overthrow him. The struggle escalated when America and her surrogates recognised Juan Guaidó while Russia, China, Turkey, Mexico and Bolivia continued to recognise the legitimacy of Maduro after he had been sworn in on 10 January 2019 for a new six-year presidential term

  • Political Observation - Yemen: The Devastating Fallout of the Stockholm Agreement 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Yemen: The Devastating Fallout of the Stockholm Agreement

    In concurrence with the Stockholm talks, the US Senate passed a resolution on 12 December 2018 calling for an end to US military support to the Saudi-led Arab coalition in the Yemen war. A day later, the Pentagon announced it would seek a reimbursement of $331 million from Saudi and the UAE for the outstanding costs of refuelling the raids of the coalition’s jetfighters.

  • Political Observation - The Sanctions and the Reality of the US-Iranian Rift 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Sanctions and the Reality of the US-Iranian Rift

    Now that America has withdrawn from the nuclear deal with Iran and as the deadline of 4 November 2018 for the economic sanctions to take full effect approaches, it seems that America has decided to carry out a strategic overhaul in the function of the Mullahs’ system that had served her interests on several occasions such as the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq and the fragmentation of Syria and Yemen. The Iranian regime was not content with those services and provided America with all the pretexts to plunder the riches of the Gulf region and establish numerous military bases there. 

  • Political Observation - Saudi Regime Admits Killing Jamal Khashoggi 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Saudi Regime Admits Killing Jamal Khashoggi

    The Saudi regime has admitted killing journalist Jamal Khashoggi in its consulate in Turkey a few hours ago.  Saudi intelligence Deputy Head, Major General Ahmed Asiri, and Royal Advisor and one of the closest aides of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saud al-Qahtani, were both relieved of their duties soon after.  The Saudi regime announced that Jamal Khashoggi had been killed in a fight at the consulate and that eight suspects were still being investigated. 

    US reaction to the Saudi regime’s admission was remarkable.  President Donald Trump said the admission was “a great first step” and that he trusted the investigations of the Saudi regime adding he would speak to the Saudi Crown Prince. These statements suggest that a scenario designed to exonerate the Saudi leadership, namely the King and his Crown Prince, is in the offing, and that a deal has been struck between the Saudi regime and the US administration who have not burnt its bridges and maintained its extensive ability to exert pressure on the House of Saud and serve its interests. 

  • Political Observation - Causes of Turkish Lira's Continued Slide 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Causes of Turkish Lira's Continued Slide

    Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan slammed the Western credit rating agencies yesterday, labelling them as impostors and racketeers for downgrading their rating of the Turkish economy, banks and financial institutions. His scathing attack came during a speech he delivered at the Turkish-Kyrgz Business Forum in Bishkek having stated the exchange rate manipulation aimed at undermining Turkish economic dynamics which he described as strong, solid and intact.

    Erdoğan also slammed the trade wars and protectionism and called for a gradual termination of the dollar’s hegemony, urging all countries of the world to discard the dollar from their commercial transactions and adopt their own currencies.

  • Political Observation - Clarification on Perceiving the Reality of States 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Clarification on Perceiving the Reality of States

    Based on previous political observations and discussions that have taken place on the reality of states and their international and regional relationships, it is imperative to clarify some of the necessary steps for those pursuing political events in order to perceive them and pass judgement on them in the closest manner possible to soundness, especially for the Muslim politician who perceives the significance of understanding political events and realities as they are linked to the issues and the fate of the Ummah. 

  • Political Observation - The Reality of the Saudi-Canadian Crisis 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Reality of the Saudi-Canadian Crisis

    The diplomatic row between Saudi and Canada has been gathering momentum on the international scene since Riyadh suddenly decided on Sunday 5 August 2018 to freeze trade and investment ties with Canada in response to the Canadian ambassador’s call for the release of political activists with secular inclinations held in the kingdom. Saudi rulers were not content with freezing trade ties; they declared the Canadian ambassador to Riyadh as persona non grata and gave him 24 hours to leave the kingdom. They also recalled the Saudi ambassador to Canada for consultations, suspended all flights to and from Canada and ordered 15, 000 students to return to Saudi in order to be relocated to other Western universities. 

  • Political Observation - The Political and Military Situation in Syria 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Political and Military Situation in Syria

    1 – The Attacks on al-Suwayda

    On 25 July 2018, several villages of al-Suwayda were subjected to a flurry of raids that left more than 250 persons dead and 300 injured. As usual, Daesh were quick to claim responsibility for those operations. Although Daesh claimed having carried out those operations, it was however clear to every observer, according to the sequence of events, that the Syrian regime and Russian military intelligence had conspired and plotted to facilitate the passage of the Daesh operatives to the region of al-Suwayda.

    Two months ago, the Syrian regime relocated about 1000 Daesh operatives to al-Suwayda’s eastern countryside after they had been repatriated from Yarmouk Camp and al-Hajar al-Aswad, south of the capital Damascus, where they joined several hundred operatives already stationed in those areas. Moreover, the regime seized the weapons of the residents of al-Suwaymara and al-Mutuna in Suwayda on 21 and 23 July 2018 after it had persuaded their dignitaries that it was no longer necessary to be armed after Dara had been liberated. Soon after, Daesh launched an extensive attack on the two villages in addition to the areas of al-Shabki, Tarba, Dama, al-Sharihi and al Ghita. This is why the residents of al-Suwayda have explicitly accused the regime of facilitating the entry of the Daesh operatives to their area after it had concluded its battle in the neighbouring governorate of Dara. The regime’s intelligence services had also been instrumental in sowing the seeds of terror and strife between the residents of al-Suwayda and the operatives of the Free Syrian Army in Dara in order to lure the residents into seeking the protection of the regime’s forces and joining its army. 

    After the regime’s forces had succeeded in expelling the opposition factions in Dara and Quneitra with the help of Russian jetfighters and Iran-affiliated ground forces, and with the green light from America, the regime, together with the international soft power reactivated the role of Daesh in the Druze areas with the aim of driving them into the embrace of the regime and generating a public opinion from within for a self-rule for the Druze akin to other minorities such as the Kurds, Alawites and Arabs, under a federal system that Russia and UN envoy De Mistura would endeavour to establish. 

    What corroborates the fact that Russia and the regime of Bashar Assad backed by America were behind the attacks of al-Suwayda with their planning and conspiring is the timing of the attack which came after Russia and the Syrian regime had demanded from the local residents of the governorate to hand over their weapons since the threat of the opposition in Dara had dissipated; the local armed groups had rejected the demands. For its part, on 26 July 2018, the largest Druze faction, Rijal al-Karama Movement, declared a general mobilisation on al-Suwayda and urged all the factions and brigades to put their differences aside and prepare for war against Daesh. 

    Suwayda24 Network reported that a meeting between a senior Russian military delegation and local dignitaries with the presence of a number of Druze sheikhs had been held to discuss the outstanding issues with the Syrian regime. The spread of weapons, compulsory military service and the future of the governorate in general were among the issues discussed. The issue of classifying Rijal Al-Karama as a terrorist organisation was also raised but it was categorically rejected by the Druze sheikhs and dignitaries as they deemed the proposal embarrassing. They also rejected the proposal of encouraging the Druze youths to join the militia of the Fifth Corps.

    Based on the aforementioned, it would be possible to deduce that what al-Suwayda and its countryside witnessed on Wednesday 25 July in terms of bombings and attacks at the hands of the Daesh operatives was in fact a threatening message to the residents of al-Suwayda from the Assad regime and Russia, with covert backing from America, because the Druze dignitaries had rejected the demands of the Russian delegation that visited the governorate. On the other hand, exerting pressure on the Druze youths and labelling Rijal al-Karama as a terrorist group would allow the voices from within calling for a self-rule, akin to other sects and ethnicities, grow louder. 

    2 - Kurdistan – Syria

    On 26 July 2018, newswires reported that a delegation of the Syrian Democratic Council, (MSD) the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are controlled by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), had visited Damascus to explore the possibility of opening offices in the capital in addition to concluding an understanding with the regime on taking over new areas to act as a buffer zone for its forces within “Syrian Kurdistan” whose geography has far exceeded the areas inhabited by the Kurdish majority in al-Hasakah and Qamishli. Media reports have revealed that delegations of the regime had recently visited northern Syria and concluded a host of agreements with the YPG stipulating that the Syrian regime would administer the oil installations, revenues, and the dams in northeast Syria in exchange for receiving electricity and essential services. Some pro-regime newspapers reported that an agreement had been signed between the YPG and the regime stipulating the removal of all posters and symbols of the YPG in all the areas under its control, especially the posters of Abdullah Ocalan. It was also agreed during the meetings to reinstate the conscription committees in all the cities of al-Hasakah governorate and set up a host of joint checkpoints between the local Kurdish administration and the Assad regime throughout all the cities of al-Hasakah governorate. The Kurdish Protection Units would agree to join the armed forces of the regime and hand over the border crossings of Yaaroubiya and Semalka with Iraq to the east and Dirbasia and Ras al-Ein with Turkey to the north, in addition to handing over the oil and gas fields to the Syrian ministry of petroleum and mineral resources. The media sources also reported that the Kurdish Protection Units have stipulated three conditions to accept these agreements with the Assad regime, namely adopting the Kurdish language as part of the school curriculum, granting the petroleum ministry to a Kurdish personality on a permanent basis and deeming the period spent in serving the YPG by the al-Hasakah youths as part of their Syrian military service. Evidence that the negotiations have begun to bear fruit on the ground is reflected in the changes the YPG-affiliated Asayish militia introduced, as the negotiations with the Syrian regime were ongoing. The militia has changed its symbol and its name in the areas under its control in northeast Syria. Kurdish Rudaw website reported on 23 July that Asayish militia had changed its name from Asayish Rojava to Internal Security Forces and that it had begun spreading its symbol around the checkpoints under its control and its security offices.

    Hence, for the time being, America has clearly changed her plan vis-à-vis the Kurdish entity in northern Syria. She has reached an agreement with the Turks after they had expelled the PKK-affiliated Kurdish units’ officials from Afrin and forced their forces to leave Manbij according to the political agreement. With Turkey’s persistence to carry out a host of military operations east of the Euphrates, America made it known to the leaders of the YPD that they had no choice but to seek the protection of the Syrian regime for the time being if they wanted to protect their entity and ease the Turkish pressure on them.

    In light of these major changes in the American stance in the method she had been pursuing to maintain the Kurdish entity in northern Syria, America has instructed the newspapers under her auspices to report that the reason for the change in the stance of the Kurdish units was America’s decision to suspend her support and the regime’s preparations to launch a military attack on their areas. In fact, this narrative is simply flawed because the areas of the units are American protectorates within what is known as “viable Syria” where the oil, water and food are. Besides, this change is part of the secret agreements concluded between America and Russia.

    3 – Turkey and the future of Idlib 

    Reports on an imminent military attack by the Syrian regime backed by Russian jetfighters on the governorate of Idlib have been gathering momentum in recent weeks. These reports have been corroborated by the recent threats Bashar Assad had made by stating that the governorate would be a priority for his forces in the forthcoming phase. The threat has struck fear into the hearts of the local residents and evoked anxiety among the Turkish leadership. This is because any attack on Idlib would lead to killing large numbers of civilians and displacing huge numbers towards the Turkish borders.

    Hence, Turkish officials were swift in issuing their warnings against this scenario since it would in their view destroy the Astana peace process. Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Hami Aksoy stressed during the Assad onslaught on southern Syria that Turkey “never wants the scenario witnessed before in East Ghouta and North Homs, and now in southwest Syria, to be repeated in the governorate of Idlib.” As for president Erdoğan, he announced on 25 July 2018, ahead of an expected meeting between him and Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in South Africa, that he would “explore with Putin the Syrian file in detail.” He added: “I will discuss with Putin the issue of Dara anew, in addition to Idlib. Here, anything could happen any moment.” Following his meeting with Putin and before returning from Johannesburg, Erdoğan told journalists on 27 July 2018 that “any attack by the Syrian forces on Idlib would be unacceptable to Turkey.” He continued: “I asked Putin to take the necessary steps to avert the potential attacks of the regime on Idlib, which would not be acceptable to us. Any military operation in there akin to what happened in Aleppo would cause a major problem for everyone.” Turkish anxiety was increased by what Russian news agency Sputnik reported quoting a source in the Assad forces as saying that the regime had been deploying military machines in order to end the influence of the opposition in the North-Eastern countryside of Latakia and the remainder of the high hills overlooking al-Shoughour bridge in the northern Idlib countryside. Despite the aforementioned, it is unlikely for either the regime or Russia to launch a military campaign on the governorate of Idlib which is currently inhabited by four million people due to the repatriation process. The alternative would more likely be a political solution within the comprehensive settlement of the Syrian issue.

    Some of the reasons proving the implausibility of a military campaign on Idlib and deeming a political solution preponderant are as follows:

    1 – It would be hard for the regime, Iran and Russia to undertake any operation unless the Turkish forces withdrew and the Russo-Turkish understanding collapsed; and it is unlikely for Turkey to withdraw her troops from the governorate of Idlib as this would send the wrong message to Turkey’s opponents, states and organisations alike. Any military campaign on Idlib with the Turkish troops stationed there could lead to a major regional war; a scenario neither the regime nor Iran, Russia and America could stomach at this stage. 

    2 – Turkish checkpoints play a major role in preventing the Syrian regime from advancing towards the governorate. Turkey has erected 12 military checkpoints at the dividing lines between the opposition and the regime; and according to the de-escalation agreement between the guarantor states, Turkey, Iran and Russia, the Turkish army concentrated during its deployment in Idlib on selecting the strategic points be they in respect of their proximity from the Assad troops or their geographic aspects such as height and military overlooking positions. 

    In response to the repeated threats to attack the governorate of Idlib, Turkey stressed her persistence on keeping the checkpoints she had erected around the governorate. In its weekly press release, the Turkish army stated on Friday 27 July 2018 that its forces in Idlib “pursue their work to uphold peace and stability by ending the struggles in the region according to the principles agreed upon in Astana…. The checkpoints will remain in order to maintain the efficacy of the ceasefire, end the struggles, provide humanitarian aid to the needy, generate appropriate conditions for the displaced to return to their homes and establish suitable conditions to end the struggle via peaceful means.”

    3 – If the battle of Idlib were to erupt, it would never be easy for the regime since the governorate houses more than 100,000 fighters from the local residents and those repatriated, in addition to the possibility of mobilising another 50, 000 from among the residents once the battle begins. Hence, the option of repatriation from Idlib, as was the case in other areas, is virtually impossible for Turkey and for the Syrian opposition who have no other choice but to fight to the bitter end. Moreover, the long open borders with Turkey and the mountains close to the coastal cities under the regime’s control represent a trump card for the Syrian opposition in Idlib. It is also worth mentioning that in line with the preparations undertaken by the opposition, four fighting groups operating in northern Syria have been drafted into the National Liberation Front which will act as the nucleus of the National Army Turkey is endeavouring to establish. What also indicates the implausibility of the military solution in Idlib is the statement of Russian chief negotiator, Alexander Lavrentyev, on 31 July 2018 in which he confirmed that any large-scale military operation in Idlib was out of the question. However, he stressed that Moscow called on the moderate Syrian opposition groups and Turkey to resolve the issue of al-Nussrah Front, currently known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and its presence in Idlib. Turkey has been conspicuously supporting the National Liberation Front, which is expected to act as the representative for the residents of Idlib and the local groups in any future negotiations. Turkey has also been eager to succeed in merging all the fighting groups in order to establish a national army in northern Syria with the aim of regulating firearms in Idlib and ensuring that Russia, America and their surrogates, who have been threatening to launch military operations on Idlib under the guise of fighting HTS, would have no pretexts left. It is also clear that a Turkish plan has been drafted with the backing of Russia to close the file of HTS and other groups classified as terrorist organisations by America and Russia. Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups have no other choice but to dissolve as far as Turkey is concerned or face the same fate as Daesh faced in the Euphrates Shield area. The presence of a Turkish plan is corroborated by the Russians’ feigned pressure they exerted on Ankara through the statements of Russian chief negotiator Alexander Lavrentyev on the need to resolve the “terrorism” issue in Idlib. The Russian intermittent statements on possible strikes against the strongholds of HTS in northern Syria are designed to allow Turkey to exert further pressure on HTS operatives and twist their arms into dissolving themselves and merging with other groups. As for Turkey’s fortification of its checkpoints in Idlib with huge concrete barriers at the main dividing lines with the areas of Bashar Assad, it forms part of her preparations for the requirements of the forthcoming phase and her endeavour to entrench her military presence as she realises that the political solution in Idlib necessitates her presence.

    Finally, if the Muslims did not perceive the reality, aim and plane of the struggle, namely being a struggle between Islam and Kufr, they would neither be able to perceive the plots of the Kuffar nor would they be able to confront them. Consequently, devoid of this sound perception, they would not be able to win this existential battle. 

    “Those who are bent on denying the truth are spending their riches in order to turn others away from the path of Allah; and they will go on spending them until they become intense regret for them; and then they will be overcome! And those who have denied the truth shall be gathered unto hell.” [8-36] 

    22 Thil Qi’dah 1439h
    4 August 2018 

     

  • Political Observation - The Omens and the Deal of the Century 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Omens and the Deal of the Century

    The “Deal of the Century” has been projected as a comprehensive plan within the framework of the new American strategy with endeavours to implement it being underway since Donald Trump took office. The two styles of execution are by and large based on the element of surprise and imposing a fait accompli policy. The plan is not merely confined to Palestine but it engulfs all the countries neighbouring the usurping entity of "Israel".  Hence, the “Deal of the Century” includes Gaza, the West Bank and al-Quds, and Jordan, Syria and Egypt as well as normalisation with all the Arab countries.

  • Political Observation - Turkey after the Elections 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Turkey after the Elections

    The preliminary results of the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey have confirmed that what Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) had been seeking from calling early elections has been effectively achieved. Erdoğan has won the presidential elections while the AKP and its ally the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have achieved a relative majority in parliament. However, despite Erdoğan’s victory giving him the powers of the new presidential system, the AKP may have to seek the help of other parliamentary groups forcing it to make some concessions in parliament to pass a host of draft bills including constitutional amendments as it has failed to achieve the required majority.

  • Protests Across the Country and the Regime’s Future 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - Protests Across the Country and the Regime's Future

    Jordanian Prime Minister Dr Hani al Mulki has, as expected, tendered the resignation of his cabinet to King Abdullah II, at the behest of the king himself, in the wake of the widespread protests that engulfed the country after al Mulki’s government had adopted a draft income tax law and announced new price increases to fuel and electricity. The government had claimed that the changes would improve public services whereas, in fact, they were but an extension of the economic and financial policies pursued by the regime, especially the policy of complying to the dictates of the IMF, which has plunged the country into debts, and the policy of squandering the sources of revenue and the properties of the state and the Ummah. The increased will go towards paying the interest and the instalments of those loans.

  • Political Observation - The Withdrawal of US Troops from Northern Syria 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation - The Withdrawal of US Troops from Northern Syria

    Turkish military activities in northern Syria have without a shadow of a doubt dealt a heavy blow to the American initiative to establish the Rojava province; this constitutes the chief cause of America’s problems with Turkey and the main obstacle in the relations between the two countries.

  • Political Observation - Is there an International Struggle between America and Russia 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم 

    Political Observation - Is there an International Struggle between America and Russia

    The recent diplomatic crisis between Russia on the one hand and Europe and NATO member states headed by America on the other was triggered by the poisoning incident of Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter on 4 March 2018. 

    The strong reaction to the incident by Britain, America and Europe, the latter currently being embroiled in a trade war with America, could not be conceived unless the strategic threat Russia poses to the US was perceived. Russia is a nuclear power and she has adopted a new doctrine pertinent to her right to an immediate response should nuclear weapons be used against her; she has also been attempting to impede America’s plans for Central Asia and to take control of its oil and supply routes, notwithstanding the Sino-Russian strategic relations and, Russia’s support for Turkey and Iran since they represent the two most strategic gateways - the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. Expelling dozens of Russian diplomats resulting in the closing of several Russian consulates by several European countries has come at the behest of the US who had sought to exert pressure on Russia and besiege her since she deems her as the second major factor impacting negatively on the progress of the American initiatives in the Islamic region. Despite the ostensible personal relationship between Trump and Putin, Russia, one of the main backers of Turkey’s rebellion against America and NATO, is impeding American manoeuvres in Syria, Afghanistan, the Ukraine, Crimea and other areas where Russian influence is manifest.

  • The Reality of the British Snap Elections 

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Political Observation

    The Reality of the British Snap Elections

    Although the British prime minister Theresa May had stated that there would be not be a general election until 2020, she unexpectedly announced her intention to hold a snap general election on 18 April 2017.

    May justified her decision by stating "division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty... So we need a general election and we need one now."

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    Bismillah Al-Rahman Al-Raheem Answers to Questions on the Recent Events in Kyrgyzstan The army in Kyrgyzstan have recently announced a state of emergency and imposed a curfew in the cities of Osh, Jalal-Abad and other parts of the country, on the grounds of continued disturbances and acts of violence that Read More
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  • Political Observation - American Supremacy - Turkey - Britain - the Deep State

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم Political Observation - American Supremacy – Turkey – Britain – the Deep State 1- The United States has been leading the international situation since 1990. However, it is facing real difficulties and fresh developments in administration and implementation. Being the unrivalled leader in the international situation does not necessarily mean Read More
  • Political Observation - The Reality of the Saudi-Canadian Crisis

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم Political Observation - The Reality of the Saudi-Canadian Crisis The diplomatic row between Saudi and Canada has been gathering momentum on the international scene since Riyadh suddenly decided on Sunday 5 August 2018 to freeze trade and investment ties with Canada in response to the Canadian ambassador’s Read More
  • Political Observation - Trump and the Looming Trade War

    On March 8 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an order imposing tariffs on Europe, China and Japan - levies on imports of steel will rise by 25 percent and aluminum by 10 percent. However, Trump exempted both Mexico and Canada from the proclamation due to the North American Free Trade Read More
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  • Political Observation - The Oil Price War is Political and Economic

     بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم Political Observation - The Oil Price War is Political and Economic  Although the aspect of the oil price war is economic, it however equally incorporates a political objective since the issue has a host of roots linked to America’s dual containment policy targeting both Russia and Europe. Read More
  • Q&A - What is the opinion on the Barcelona car-ramming incident and its ramifications?

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم Answer to Questions Second Question: What is the opinion on the Barcelona car-ramming incident and its ramifications? The car-ramming operation of 17 August 2017 in the cities of Barcelona and Cambrils occurred under the following circumstances: 1 - It is well known the government of Catalonia announced Read More
  • The Reality of the British Snap Elections

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم Political Observation The Reality of the British Snap Elections Although the British prime minister Theresa May had stated that there would be not be a general election until 2020, she unexpectedly announced her intention to hold a snap general election on 18 April 2017. May justified Read More
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Latest Culture

  • Is Fighting Against Occupation Jihad?

    Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem Answers to Questions Do we consider the fighting against the armies occupying the Muslims' lands, as is the case today, and in the absence of the Amir, be deemed as Jihad? Do we deem it part of the defensive Jihad, knowing that the Answer to a Question Read More
  • Q&A - Mutawatir Hadith (number of narrators)

    Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem Answers to Questions Question: Why do we say that the Mutawatir Hadith is the one narrated by at least five persons whose collusion on a lie is impracticable, whilst there is disagreement on the acceptable number amongst the scholars? Some of them say three and others say Read More
  • Mujtahid & Muqallid (Q&A)

    Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem Question & Answer Question: It is mentioned on page 58 of the official version of the book entitled The System of Islam that, “the Muttabe’ (follower) is the one who is lacking some accredited Shari’ah sciences”, whereas in fact, this description fits the Ammi (common) and not the Read More
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  • America Leads West in War of Extermination against Islam and Muslims

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم Dear Muslims, Salvage Yourselves   America Leads West in War of Extermination against Islam and Muslims    Some Western institutions classify the Islamic World as the region that rejects integration. This means the region that rejects Western civilisation and its Capitalist concepts. This is why the Read More
  • Communiqué to the Islamic Ummah

    Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem Communiqué to the Islamic Ummah What has been occurring in Iraq is not unintentional. Steering Iraq towards drawing sectarian and ethnic borders is part of a plot that has been executed meticulously and gradually to portray that the children of the Ummah are the ones who want Read More
  • Appeal to the Sagacious Islamic Ummah (Syria)

    Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem Appeal to the Sagacious Islamic Ummah The League of Muslim Scholars held a conference in Cairo on 13 June 2013 under the theme “The Stance of the Ummah’s Scholars towards the Events in Syria”. The conference attracted a large number of scholars and sheikhs who debated the Read More
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  • Answers to Questions about grudge or envy (Hasad) - about Du'aa and about learning languages

    Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem Answers to Questions Question1: Does al-ain, i.e. the “evil eye” have any influence on man? How do we deal with Ahadith stipulating that “The evil eye is real, and if anything were to overtake al-Qadar (divine decree) it would be the evil eye?” Ibnul Qayyim wrote in Read More
  • Omar Ibnul Khattab's (ra) conversion to Islam

    Bismillah al-Rahman al-Raheem Answers to Questions 1- What is preponderant is that 'Omar Ibnul Khattab (ra) embraced Islam during the period of the secret Da’awah, i.e. the Culturing Period, and not during the overt Da’awah, i.e. the Interaction Period. In other words, he embraced Islam around the third year. The Read More
  • The Ramadan Message

    Bismillah Al-Rahman Al-Rahim The Ramadan Message [Ramadan is the month in which the Qur’an was sent down, as a guide to mankind, also clear Signs for guidance and judgement (between right and wrong). So every one of you who is present during that month should spend it in fasting [TMQ Read More
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