G20 Summit in Indonesia 

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Political Follow-up - G20 Summit in Indonesia

Sino-American tensions and the fallouts of the Ukrainian war topped the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Tuesday, 15 November 2022, in addition to the energy crisis, inflation, food security and concerns about the economic slowdown instigated by the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Chinese Zero-Covid policy.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo inaugurated the Summit by saying, “Being responsible here means also that we must end the war. If the war did not end, it would be hard for the world to move forward.” Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the inaugural session via videoconferencing saying, “I am convinced that the time has come in which the devastating Russian war could and should be stopped.” This proves once again that the withdrawal from Kherson and the ongoing talks between Russian and American security officials act as harbingers for the desire to freeze the Ukrainian crisis. In this regard, the Chinese president said: "We must firmly oppose the politicisation of food and energy problematics and turn them into tools and weapons," and expressed his aversion to the Western sanctions policy. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also announced that it opposed the exclusion of Russia from the G20 and from other international platforms.

This summit comes amid congested international conditions, and at a time when China’s President and the US President stand on solid domestic grounds that enable them to approach confrontation and competition from a position of strength. The summit came in the wake of the coronation of Chinese President Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term at the Communist Party Congress, which enabled him to restructure the future leadership of the party while approving several policies and regulations emanating from the vision of the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", which was officially added to China's constitution to bestow prestige, honour and loyalty on President Xi Jinping and his approach to using force to recapture Taiwan.

The summit also came as the Republican Party faltered and the Democratic Party advanced and gained an unexpected victory in the Senate. The summit also came in light of a state of European weakness and restlessness and a sense of bias faced by European and Japanese companies as a result of US laws and restrictions issued by the Department of Commerce and the Treasury, which the United States is promoting as a tool to curtail China's economic and military capabilities, including the inflation control law which granted American companies Nearly $369 billion in tax breaks and facilities which was described by a European Commission official as "a plan that threatens European industry," adding that it is "an excellent example of how, during a crisis, the United States will solve its own problems first and not show transatlantic solidarity." Another example is America's decision to ban the export of advanced chip and semiconductor technology which impacts Dutch, Korean and Japanese companies.

It is no secret that the meeting of the Chinese and American presidents for about three hours was the most prominent and important event of the G20 Summit due to its connection to the tense relations between the two countries following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the US policy of strategic ambiguity regarding the Taiwanese issue, and because of US strategy towards China and its classification as the greatest challenge to the United States, in addition to China’s standpoint vis-à-vis the Ukrainian crisis.

In order to perceive elements of the tension between the two countries, which represent the two largest economic and military powers, it must be understood that Chinese President Xi Jinping has established Chinese foreign policy from the perspective of trade competition with the United States. During his reign, China designed the "double circulation" economic strategy to strengthen the domestic market and reduce dependence on other countries.

In a speech in late 2020, President Xi Jinping spoke of using Chinese technologies to tighten the world's dependence on China for supply chains. In doing so, the Chinese leader has put the United States on the defensive in a way that no other Chinese leader has ever done before. He worked continuously over ten years to increase China's international status and influence, enabled it to play a greater role in global governance, transformed his country into a competing military, diplomatic and economic power, and fortified its hybrid model that was stipulated in Document No. 9, which was reportedly issued by the Central Bureau of the Communist Party after Xi assumed the presidency. The document referred to seven threats that must be guarded against, including "universal values", the concept of "civil society", which is beyond the party's control, and press freedom. Accordingly, Xi Jinping curtailed freedoms in Hong Kong and Xinxiang province, and implemented industrial policies that the West considered aggressive because they gave preference to the largest government companies in China at the expense of multinational companies. Xi also enacted a host of laws penalising companies that are considered hostile to China, and this is in addition to his independent and opposing positions against the American will regarding international crises which made China a remarkable imprint in international relations, and which the United States considers a threat to its interests and international standing.

Therefore, US National Security Strategy stated that China "has the intent, and increasingly, the ability to reshape the international system to the advantage of one that distorts the global playing field in its favour," while President Biden has repeatedly stressed that America is "in the battle between democracies and authoritarian regimes," bearing in mind that America does not target China for value considerations as much as it targets it for geo-economic, technical and political considerations.

The messages of defiance from Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping before their meeting were clear through the appearance of the Chinese president a few days ago in military uniform, his hints of war regarding Taiwan independence, and by expelling former Chinese President Hu Jintao, live on television, from the Communist Party conference in a clear reference to the end of the era of openness towards the West and tolerance of Western ideas and dictates. In the meantime, America continued its double pressure on China and Europe, especially on Germany and France through the Ukrainian war, and through its engineering of the European-Chinese relationship.

In light of European rapprochement with China, including the partnership between the car companies Renault (French) and Geely Auto (Chinese) with the blessing of French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as the purchase by Chinese shipping company COSCO of a large chunk of the shares of the port of Hamburg in Germany, despite domestic warnings and severe criticism of the German Chancellor, the European Commission, urged, on November 3 under American pressure prior to the G-20 meeting and the visit of the German Chancellor to China, the European Union member states to reduce the risks associated with Chinese communications equipment in the 5G networks. Germany in particular was described by the EU as a country that needed to implement the bloc's common security guidelines. “We urge Member States that have not yet imposed restrictions on high-risk suppliers to do so without delay, as a matter of urgency,” said Margrethe Vestager, the Commission's Executive Vice President in charge of digital issues, and singled out Germany in particular.

Since the Trump administration, the United States has taken advantage of the Covid 19 pandemic to change the global mood against China, fuelling Western governments' fear of it by promoting cyber breaches and theft of intellectual rights, raising the pace of naval operations to "protect water rights" in the eastern and southern China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and highlighting the military development and the special relationship, "partnership without borders", that brings China and Russia together, especially after Xi Jinping's refusal to condemn the war on Ukraine.

As for the outcomes of the summit, they are related to the goals of the United States and the commercial and technical competition with China and what is pertinent to them in terms of international systems and legislation, such as property rights, digital industries, rare materials and global supply chains, as well as China's position on America’s containment policy, including an attempt to frame the Chinese position towards Russia, the use of nuclear weapons, the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea.

Given the nature of the contentious issues, it is unlikely that an agreement on them could be concluded, and what is most likely is the continuation of tension and the possibility of crises erupting, especially since America’s statements regarding outstanding issues are one thing, and what it is doing on the ground is something else; this is in addition to China’s determination to pursue the Belt and Road project and its related policies of lending, which the United States considers a trick and a means of influence, and China’s declaration of its aversion to isolating Russia and the policy of dictates and sanctions, as well as its insistence on preventing the independence of Taiwan, even by force, despite China’s assertion that it does not seek to change the international system.

It is also expected that America will use the summit as a platform to hold Russia responsible for the global economic suffering, and to show it as morally and politically defeated, after portraying its withdrawal from Kherson as a military defeat and as a prelude to freezing the Ukrainian crisis, and to pursue the policy of downsizing and containing Russia, China and Europe at the same time.

20 Rabi’ al-Awwal 1444h                                hizbuttahrir.org
15 November 2022

Political Follow-up: Russo-Ukrainian Crisis Updates 

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Political Follow-up - Russo-Ukrainian Crisis Updates

On Wednesday, 9 November, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the withdrawal of Russian forces from the right (western) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson. "They carried out the withdrawal of the soldiers," Shoigu said on television; and this came amid the recent withdrawal of the Russian forces and amid fears for the lives of Russian soldiers, the lack of support and supplies, the rise in voices critical of the course of military operations, and the reluctance of Russian youth to partake in the war.

The Assassination Attempt Against Imran Khan 

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Political Follow-up - The Assassination Attempt Against Imran Khan

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan escaped an assassination attempt last Thursday as he was shot in the leg while travelling in a truck between Lahore and the capital, Islamabad. Khan was participating in the city of Wazirabad, Punjab province, in the protest march of his party, which has been going on for 7 days, to demand holding early general elections. As a result, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) accused Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Minister of Interior Rana Sanaullah, and Major General Faisal Naseer (a senior intelligence official) of being behind the assassination attempt.

In the context of the event, we draw attention to the fact that the removal of Imran Khan from the premiership last April was an American decision, which was exposed by the complicity of the army which is closely linked to the United States, and the position of America’s agents in the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) and of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), who formed an opposition front against Khan's continuation in government. We also draw attention to the fact that what is happening in Pakistan falls within the framework of the American interest in restructuring the domestic Pakistani situation, which is suffocated by the economic deterioration and the contempt of the military and political authorities and families from Punjab in corruption and monopoly of power.

Following the ousting of Imran Khan and his government through the Supreme Court and Parliament, the Election Commission conspired on October 21 and banned Khan from running for any political office for five years, claiming that he had not declared receiving gifts while in power. In light of this decision, Imran Khan set out on Friday, October 28, in a march from the city of Lahore towards the capital, Islamabad, in a campaign to show his popularity to the United States, realising that the latter is in control of the threads of the political game and that it prefers the ruler who is popular in his country. Moreover, Khan aims from the popular rallies to exert pressure on the government and the army to hold new elections, and on the Election Commission (and those behind it) to reverse the decision to prevent him from running in the upcoming elections.

America and its men in Pakistan perceived clearly Imran Khan’s message and took advantage of his moves to restructure the domestic situation, but he went too far in his domestic and foreign behaviour, which America considers to be taboo that threatens to challenge its will and audacity against it in Pakistan and elsewhere. Therefore, America decided to punish him with an assassination operation that would add fuel to the fire and put the political and military leadership under pressure of the masses to force them to change their behaviour, reshape and purge the domestic structures, especially since the excessive corruption of the old guard and the army’s control of the economy is no longer tolerated by the masses;  it also threatens American interests, just as America is seeking to generate influence on China and neighbouring India by deterring and controlling the Indian political and military milieu from the restructuring of the Pakistani situation.

In the context of curtailing the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the United States, through the Pakistani government, supported the "Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan Movement ", which is headquartered in the city of Lahore in Punjab, and enjoys representation in the government. The movement was exhorted to stand up to the defamation of the Messenger (saw), assume the role of the opposition, attract and contain the masses who are resentful towards the authority and jostle with Imran Khan and the PTI, which has become a weight in Pakistani political life that enables it to transcend domestic politics and foreign dictates.

Despite the reactions of America, the army leadership, Pakistani President Arif Alvi, and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, which strongly condemned the assassination attempt, the truth is that there is a clear American will to control Imran Khan and keep him away from the political scene with a group of his party leaders, especially since he was ousted from power and has been directing his arrows towards America and its agents in the state with unprecedented defiance in Pakistani political life, as well as his rapprochement with China and his persistence in the approach that contributed to establishing and building the Sino-Pakistani economic zone and a number of projects, which were integrated with the Belt and Road Initiative. The value of the projects implemented and under implementation amounted to nearly $50 billion, which is the largest Chinese investment in the developing world, while Chinese loans to Pakistan in recent years amounted to about $11 billion, in light of the decline in US financial support. This is in addition to Imran Khan’s rapprochement with Russia, which was demonstrated by Pakistan's abstention from voting on the United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Russia and declaring that Pakistan would continue buying wheat and oil from it, while the Pakistani army chief, Qamar Javid, disagreed with him, stressing that his country has "a history and an excellent strategic relationship with America." Qamar Javid also slammed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, referring to the centrality of the army and its importance to American interests, after the American criticism of Pakistan had affected the government and the army.

All of this explains the reasons behind America's resentment towards Imran Khan and the reasons behind deposing and punishing him harshly. Khan had previously stated that America supported the opposition in its attempt to overthrow him because of his visit to Moscow and his meeting with Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022. This made the Pakistani army leaders who objected to his visit to Moscow express their resentment at Imran Khan's accusations that they formed part of the American conspiracy that ousted him through Parliament.

As a result of Khan’s continued troublemaking behaviour towards the regime through the continuous demonstrations and his insistence on running for office and exerting popular pressure to dissuade the government and the army from disqualifying him, and after he had attracted tens of thousands of supporters in the march that began on October 28, and embroiled the masses into politics, which America prohibits despite the benefits it reaped from politicising the masses in terms of reshaping the domestic structures, harming or assassinating him, as was the case with some of his predecessors, purging his party of dissidents, and removing them from the political scene became a favourite option for his opponents. This is because the United States does not allow the masses to have an influential word in Islamic countries with large populations such as Pakistan, Egypt and Indonesia; thus, it entrusts the running of their regimes to the army and the collaborating leaders.

This narrative was admitted by Pakistani Lieutenant General Hamid Gul, Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) between 1987 and 1989; he confirmed that the United States had some treacherous inputs on senior military appointments and emphasised that Washington had extensive networks of influence across Pakistan's political, academic, and media aspects, as well as the diplomatic elite.

It is clear from the aforementioned that Imran Khan's behaviour has transgressed the rules of the domestic and foreign political game; on the day the popular march was launched against what he called the "imported government," he declared: "This nation is ready to make all sacrifices, but it will not accept thieves. The aim of the march is for the people to make decisions for themselves." This was in addition to his previous statement on May 23, when he called his supporters for a peaceful march to press for new elections and described the march as a "step towards protecting the country's sovereignty", and that "the vote that ousted him was a conspiracy organised by the United States."

The assassination attempt on Imran Khan came after the assassination of Pakistani journalist Arshad Sharif on 23 October in Kenya. Arshad Sharif had been briefed by Imran Khan on the contents of the notorious letter from Pakistan's ambassador to Washington. Among the repercussions of the assassination attempt, it is expected that Imran Khan’s popularity will increase, pressure will increase on the government of Shahbaz Sharif and the Election Commission to prevent Imran Khan’s candidacy, and Khan will turn into a complex number in the political equation, and that the regime will resort to cosmetic changes under the pressure of societal unrest, which may provide a justification for the army to intervene and seize power in order to prevent events from getting out of control.

The events may lead Pakistan to chaos and civil war, Allah forbid, especially since the geopolitical position of Pakistan constitutes a hotbed of tension for China, and it is feared that the United States will plunge Pakistan into chaos, and ignite fighting in the Pakistani-Indian border, and in the flank of China on the side of the Muslim East Turkestan, and embroil the Muslims in the midst of a war that is not theirs. This is what the United States has been doing and the whole West has practised in their dealings with Muslims in the absence of their guardian and their State.

13 Rabi’ al-Thani 1444h                           hizbuttahrir.org
8 November 2022
 

Political Follow-Up: Arab Summit in Algeria 

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Political Follow-up - Arab Summit in Algeria

After a three-year hiatus, the 31st Arab Summit was launched in Algeria on the evening of Tuesday 1 November, under the theme of "reunion", chaired by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. The Summit was attended by two-thirds of Arab leaders and chieftains, and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, with the participation of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Senegalese President and current Chairman of the African Union Macky Sall, and Ilham Aliyev, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and President of the Non-Aligned Movement, as guests at the Summit.

Political Follow-Up: The Failure and Resignation of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss 

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Political Follow-Up - The Failure and Resignation of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss

44 days into her tenure and on the eve of the day she defied her opponents and reaffirmed her determination to remain in power, saying that she was “a fighter, not a quitter”, British Prime Minister Liz Truss tendered her resignation on Thursday 20 October after she had come under scathing criticism for refusing to step down and for passing the buck to Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng for the rescinded mini-budget plan which caused a turmoil in the financial markets.